The Vote of the One Who Left: El Salvador and Its Diaspora

Not in the region.

In the world.

A hundred per hundred thousand people in some years.

For context, that's roughly twenty times the U.S.

rate right now.

Yo recuerdo esos años.

I remember those years.

Las noticias de El Salvador son siempre malas.

The news from El Salvador is always bad.

Siempre violencia.

Always violence.

Always.

And in that context, leaving wasn't a lifestyle choice.

It was survival.

And the journey itself was brutal.

Many people traveled through Guatemala, through Mexico, through the desert.

The caravans that became such a political flashpoint in the United States, those weren't people looking for opportunity in a simple sense.

They were people who had calculated that the risk of dying on the road was lower than the risk of staying home.

El viaje es muy peligroso.

The journey is very dangerous.

Muchas personas mueren en México.

Many people die in Mexico.

En el desierto.

In the desert.

I've been to the Sonoran Desert.

I've spoken to people who've made that crossing.

The woman at the bus station I was telling you about, she had a phone number written on her arm with a marker.

A contact in Phoenix.

That was her plan.

That was the whole plan.

Es muy triste.

It's very sad.

Pero ahora, El Salvador cambia.

But now, El Salvador is changing.

Con Bukele, hay menos violencia.

With Bukele, there is less violence.

This is where it gets genuinely complicated.

Nayib Bukele has cracked down on the gangs in a way that has produced dramatic results.

The homicide rate has collapsed.

People who left El Salvador a decade ago are starting to go back to visit for the first time.

Tourism is actually up.

Streets that were no-go zones are now full of people.

But the methods.

Sí.

Yes.

Bukele tiene muchos presos.

Bukele has many prisoners.

Más de ochenta mil personas en la cárcel.

More than eighty thousand people in jail.

Eso es un problema.

That is a problem.

A state of emergency that suspended basic due process rights.

Mass arrests.

A purpose-built mega-prison called the CECOT.

Human rights organizations documenting deaths in custody, wrongful detentions, people swept up with no connection to any gang.

The safety is real, but so is the cost.

And the people in the diaspora have complicated feelings about all of this.

Muchos salvadoreños en los Estados Unidos apoyan a Bukele.

Many Salvadorans in the United States support Bukele.

La violencia antes es muy mala.

The violence before is very bad.

There's something almost paradoxical about it.

The diaspora fled violence, often from the hands of the state as much as from the gangs.

And now they're watching a strong-arm government crack down, and many of them are saying, well, finally.

Because the alternative they lived through was worse.

La diáspora manda dinero a El Salvador.

The diaspora sends money to El Salvador.

Mucho dinero.

A lot of money.

Las remesas son muy importantes.

Remittances are very important.

About eight billion dollars a year.

Eight billion, into an economy with a GDP of roughly thirty-two billion.

That's something like a quarter of the entire economy running on money sent home by people who left.

No tourism sector, no export industry, no government program comes close to that number.

En muchas familias, el dinero viene de los Estados Unidos.

In many families, the money comes from the United States.

El hermano, la hermana, el tío.

The brother, the sister, the uncle.

Ellos trabajan allí y mandan dinero.

They work there and send money.

So the diaspora is not a side story.

The diaspora is financing the country.

And for decades, that community has had almost no formal political voice inside El Salvador.

They could technically register to vote, but the logistics were nearly impossible, and there was no one in the legislature who actually represented their interests specifically.

Ahora, con esta reforma, hay seis diputados para la diáspora.

Now, with this reform, there are six deputies for the diaspora.

Es un cambio grande.

It is a big change.

Six out of sixty.

Ten percent of the legislature.

And I want to ask you something direct.

Is this genuinely about representing the diaspora, or is this Bukele building a new electoral constituency that he knows is sympathetic to him?

Las dos cosas, creo.

Both things, I think.

La diáspora necesita representación.

The diaspora needs representation.

Pero Bukele también quiere poder.

But Bukele also wants power.

That's probably the honest answer.

It can be both things simultaneously.

And that's the uncomfortable nature of populism done competently.

You can deliver a real benefit to a real group of people and be doing it entirely for your own political purposes, and both of those statements can be equally true.

Bukele es muy popular en la diáspora.

Bukele is very popular in the diaspora.

Muchos salvadoreños en los Estados Unidos quieren volver.

Many Salvadorans in the United States want to return.

Ahora es posible.

Now it is possible.

And that's a real shift in the travel story, which is what brought me to this in the first place.

For twenty years, the direction of movement was out.

Now there are Salvadorans who have lived in the U.S.

for a decade, whose kids speak English as a first language, who are going back.

Not just to visit family.

To stay.

Because the country they left no longer exists in the same form.

El Salvador tiene playas muy bonitas.

El Salvador has very beautiful beaches.

La gente de Europa también va ahora.

People from Europe also go now.

Es un destino nuevo.

It is a new destination.

There's a surf town called El Tunco that I've read has become genuinely popular with foreign travelers.

Which would have been unthinkable fifteen years ago.

You wouldn't have recommended El Salvador as a beach destination when the bus from the airport could get you killed depending on which neighborhood you passed through.

El turismo es bueno para el país.

Tourism is good for the country.

Pero también hay preguntas.

But there are also questions.

La libertad de prensa en El Salvador no es buena.

Press freedom in El Salvador is not good.

That lands hard with me personally.

Reporters Without Borders has El Salvador well down in the rankings.

Journalists covering the crackdown critically have faced harassment.

One of the more respected investigative outlets there has operated under enormous pressure.

You can have a country that is safer for tourists and more dangerous for the press at the same time, and that combination should not be allowed to look like progress.

Tienes razón.

You're right.

La democracia necesita prensa libre.

Democracy needs a free press.

Sin periodistas, los problemas no son visibles.

Without journalists, the problems are not visible.

So back to the reform.

Six overseas seats.

Let's talk about what this actually means practically.

Where do most diaspora Salvadorans live?

Primarily in the U.S., especially in Los Angeles, Washington D.C., and Houston.

So in effect, you're creating a parliamentary constituency that votes from American cities.

That's a genuinely novel thing in Latin American politics.

Italia tiene diputados para italianos en el mundo.

Italy has deputies for Italians in the world.

Francia también.

France too.

Es posible.

It is possible.

Pero es complicado.

But it is complicated.

Italy's been doing it since 2001.

And it's been a mess, frankly.

Voter turnout in overseas constituencies tends to be very low.

Candidates campaign through WhatsApp groups and social media and diaspora associations.

It's a different political animal entirely from a standard domestic election.

El Salvador is going to have to figure all of that out.

Es verdad.

That's true.

Pero la diáspora necesita una voz.

But the diaspora needs a voice.

Ellos mandan ocho mil millones de dólares.

They send eight billion dollars.

Deben tener representación.

They should have representation.

No taxation without representation, the inverse version.

No remittances without representation.

I think there's something in that.

If your economy depends structurally on a population that has no formal political standing, that's a democratic gap worth taking seriously.

Exactamente.

Exactly.

Y quizás, con representación, más salvadoreños quieren volver.

And perhaps, with representation, more Salvadorans want to return.

El país necesita personas.

The country needs people.

That's the long game.

A country that lost a third of its population to emigration needs a reason for those people, or their children, to consider coming back.

Political belonging might be part of that.

The right to vote for someone who speaks for you might make the idea of return feel less like abandonment and more like a choice you're still part of.

Para mí, vivir en el extranjero es difícil.

For me, living abroad is hard.

Cuatro años en Londres son suficientes.

Four years in London are enough.

Yo quiero volver a casa.

I want to go back home.

You know, I've lived out of a suitcase for half my career.

Beirut, Jakarta, Kabul.

And there is a very specific feeling the first time you come back from a long assignment and something is different, the neighborhood changed, the restaurant closed, your daughter learned to ride a bike while you were in another timezone.

The Salvadorans in Los Angeles carry that feeling for decades, not months.

Oye, Fletcher.

Hey, Fletcher.

Antes dices 'quizás'.

Before you say 'quizás'.

En español, usas 'quizás' con el indicativo o con el subjuntivo.

In Spanish, you use 'quizás' with the indicative or with the subjunctive.

¿Sabes la diferencia?

Do you know the difference?

I absolutely do not know the difference.

I barely know what the subjunctive is in English.

Walk me through it.

Mira.

Look.

'Quizás vuelve' significa que es probable.

'Quizás vuelve' means it's likely.

'Quizás vuelva' significa que hay más duda.

'Quizás vuelva' means there is more doubt.

Las dos formas son posibles con 'quizás'.

Both forms are possible with 'quizás'.

So the word itself tells you how certain the speaker is.

'Maybe he comes back' is more confident than 'maybe he comes back' but the confidence is encoded in the verb form, not in the word 'maybe.' English just doesn't do that.

We add words for emphasis.

'Probably.' 'Perhaps.' 'Who knows.' Spanish bakes the doubt directly into the grammar.

Exacto.

Exactly.

Y para los salvadoreños de la diáspora, 'quizás vuelvo' es la pregunta de toda su vida.

And for the Salvadorans of the diaspora, 'quizás vuelvo' is the question of their whole lives.

Maybe I return.

Maybe I return.

Whether you say that with the indicative or the subjunctive probably depends on the decade.

In 2005, it was definitely the subjunctive.

More doubt.

Now, for some of them, maybe it's edging toward the indicative.

More certainty.

I'll be turning that over for a while.