B1 · Intermediate
14 min
energy marketsgeopoliticsinternational tradediplomacy
One Hundred Ships and a Deal
Cien barcos y un acuerdo
Iran, the United States, and Pakistan are close to a ceasefire deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Fletcher and Octavio dig into why that fifty-kilometer stretch of water controls oil prices, shipping insurance, and the global economy.
Irán, Estados Unidos y Pakistán están muy cerca de un acuerdo de alto el fuego que incluye la reapertura del Estrecho de Ormuz. Fletcher y Octavio exploran por qué ese corredor marítimo de apenas cincuenta kilómetros controla el precio del petróleo, los seguros marítimos y la economía global.
5 essential B1-level terms from this episode, with translations and example sentences in Spanish.
| Spanish | English | Example |
|---|---|---|
| el estrecho | the strait (narrow passage of water) | El Estrecho de Ormuz tiene solo treinta y tres kilómetros en su punto más estrecho. |
| el seguro marítimo | maritime insurance | Cuando hay conflictos en el Golfo, el seguro marítimo sube mucho. |
| el alto el fuego | ceasefire | Los dos países aceptaron un alto el fuego de sesenta días. |
| arrimar el ascua a su sardina | to look out for one's own interests (literally: to draw the coal toward one's sardine) | En las negociaciones, cada país arrimaba el ascua a su sardina. |
| el memorándum de entendimiento | memorandum of understanding (MOU) | Firmaron un memorándum de entendimiento, pero no es un tratado oficial. |
Here's a number that stopped me cold this morning: one hundred.
That's how many commercial ships the U.S.
Central Command says it has redirected away from the Strait of Hormuz since the blockade started.
One hundred ships.
And four others just disabled outright.
Sí, y ahora parece que hay un acuerdo muy cerca.
Yes, and now it looks like a deal is very close.
Estados Unidos, Irán y Pakistán dicen que el alto el fuego va a incluir la reapertura del Estrecho.
The U.S., Iran, and Pakistan say the ceasefire will include reopening the Strait.
Trump dijo que van a anunciar los detalles 'muy pronto'.
Trump said they'll announce the details 'very soon.'
Right, and the Financial Times is reporting they're looking at a sixty-day ceasefire extension, with a framework for nuclear talks layered on top.
So this isn't just a pause.
It's supposed to be the architecture of something longer.
Mira, lo que me parece más interesante es lo que dice la agencia de noticias iraní Fars: Irán va a administrar el Estrecho.
Look, what I find most interesting is what Iran's Fars News Agency says: Iran is going to manage the Strait.
No solo que el Estrecho se abre, sino que Irán lo controla.
Not just that the Strait opens, but that Iran controls it.
Eso es muy importante.
That is very significant.
That distinction matters enormously, and I want to come back to it.
But first, can we just establish for listeners what we're actually talking about geographically?
Because I think a lot of people hear 'Strait of Hormuz' and picture something vast.
It isn't.
Exacto.
Exactly.
En el punto más estrecho tiene solo unos treinta y tres kilómetros de ancho.
At its narrowest point it's only about thirty-three kilometers wide.
Pero por esos treinta y tres kilómetros pasa aproximadamente el veinte por ciento del petróleo del mundo.
But through those thirty-three kilometers passes approximately twenty percent of the world's oil.
Un quinto de todo el petróleo.
One fifth of all oil.
Es increíble.
It's incredible.
Twenty percent.
And that's not just crude oil — it's liquefied natural gas as well, a huge chunk of what Qatar ships to Europe and Asia.
I covered the region in the early 2000s, and even then, whenever there was any tension in the Gulf, every energy desk in the world went on high alert.
Claro.
Of course.
Y esto no es nuevo.
And this is not new.
En los años ochenta, durante la guerra entre Irán e Irak, los dos países atacaron barcos en el Golfo Pérsico.
In the eighties, during the Iran-Iraq war, both countries attacked ships in the Persian Gulf.
El mundo lo llamó la 'guerra de los buques cisterna'.
The world called it the 'tanker war.' Maritime insurance prices went up enormously.
Los precios del seguro marítimo subieron muchísimo.
The tanker war.
I actually wrote about that period years later when I was reporting on Iranian naval doctrine.
The Revolutionary Guard developed their whole strategy around the idea that you don't have to close the Strait completely to cause havoc — you just have to make it feel unpredictable.
Y la incertidumbre es muy cara.
And uncertainty is very expensive.
Cuando los barcos no saben si el camino es seguro, las compañías de seguros cobran más.
When ships don't know whether the route is safe, insurance companies charge more.
Mucho más.
Much more.
Y ese coste extra lo pagan todos: los países que compran el petróleo, y también las personas que compran gasolina.
And that extra cost is paid by everyone: the countries that buy the oil, and also the people who buy gasoline.
So walk me through what the blockade has actually done to shipping insurance since it started, because I've seen some figures that are genuinely alarming.
Bueno, antes del bloqueo, el seguro para un barco grande que pasaba por el Estrecho costaba quizás medio millón de dólares por viaje.
Well, before the blockade, insurance for a large ship passing through the Strait cost perhaps half a million dollars per voyage.
Durante el bloqueo, eso subió a dos, tres millones.
During the blockade, that rose to two, three million.
Algunos barcos no podían conseguir seguro a ningún precio.
Some ships couldn't get insurance at any price.
No insurance at any price.
That's not an abstraction — that means the ship simply doesn't sail.
And when ships don't sail, cargo doesn't arrive, and somewhere down the chain a factory runs short of a component, a refinery runs low on crude, a consumer pays more at the pump.
Exactamente.
Exactly.
Y los países que dependen más del petróleo del Golfo son China, Japón y Corea del Sur.
And the countries that depend most on Gulf oil are China, Japan, and South Korea.
Para ellos, el Estrecho no es una cuestión lejana.
For them, the Strait is not a distant issue.
Es una cuestión de electricidad, de industria, de vida diaria.
It is a matter of electricity, industry, daily life.
Japan imports something like ninety percent of its energy.
Ninety.
The Strait of Hormuz is not a foreign policy issue for Tokyo — it's an existential one.
Which explains why you're seeing protests at the U.S.
naval base in Yokosuka right now.
Sí, eso es muy importante.
Yes, that is very important.
La gente en Japón protesta porque sienten que su economía depende de una decisión que tomó Washington.
People in Japan are protesting because they feel their economy depends on a decision made in Washington.
Y tienen razón.
And they are right.
No es solo política.
It is not just politics.
Es su economía.
It is their economy.
Now, the ships that were redirected — a hundred of them — they didn't just stop.
They took longer routes.
Around the Cape of Good Hope, typically.
Add two to three weeks to a voyage, add the fuel costs, add the additional crew time.
That cost gets baked into everything.
Es lo mismo que pasó con el Canal de Suez cuando los hutíes atacaban los barcos en el Mar Rojo.
It's the same as what happened with the Suez Canal when the Houthis were attacking ships in the Red Sea.
Los barcos tuvieron que ir por el Cabo de Buena Esperanza también.
Ships had to go around the Cape of Good Hope too.
Las compañías de transporte perdieron mucho dinero y los precios subieron en todo el mundo.
Shipping companies lost a lot of money and prices rose everywhere.
And that's the pattern, isn't it.
Every time one of these critical maritime chokepoints gets disrupted, we get a real-world demonstration of just how thin the margins of global trade actually are.
It's remarkable how fragile the system looks under pressure.
Muy frágil.
Very fragile.
Y ahora volvemos a la pregunta importante: ¿qué significa que Irán va a 'administrar' el Estrecho?
And now we return to the important question: what does it mean that Iran is going to 'manage' the Strait?
Antes, los barcos pasaban libremente.
Before, ships passed freely.
Si ahora Irán controla quién puede pasar, eso cambia todo.
If now Iran controls who can pass, that changes everything.
This is where I get nervous about the word 'deal.' Because there's a version of this agreement that looks like a win for everyone — the Strait reopens, oil flows, markets settle — and there's a version that's essentially the United States handing Iran a toll booth.
Claro, y históricamente Irán siempre quiso tener más control sobre el Estrecho.
Of course, and historically Iran always wanted more control over the Strait.
La República Islámica considera el Golfo Pérsico como su espacio natural.
The Islamic Republic considers the Persian Gulf its natural space.
Así que si el acuerdo les da ese control, es una victoria política muy grande para Teherán.
So if the deal gives them that control, it is a very big political victory for Tehran.
And a complicated one for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait — all of whom ship their oil through that same passage and presumably would prefer that their neighbor across the water doesn't hold the keys.
Exacto.
Exactly.
Los países del Golfo van a mirar este acuerdo con mucha desconfianza.
The Gulf countries are going to look at this deal with a lot of distrust.
Para ellos, un Irán que controla el Estrecho es un problema de seguridad, no solo económico.
For them, an Iran that controls the Strait is a security problem, not just an economic one.
La geopolítica y la economía están siempre muy conectadas aquí.
Geopolitics and economics are always very connected here.
Let's talk about what actually happens to oil prices the moment this deal gets formally announced.
Because markets have been pricing in uncertainty for months.
When that uncertainty lifts, you'd expect a fairly sharp correction.
Sí.
Yes.
Si el acuerdo es real y el Estrecho se abre de verdad, el precio del petróleo probablemente va a bajar.
If the deal is real and the Strait truly opens, the price of oil will probably fall.
Más oferta significa precios más bajos.
More supply means lower prices.
Para los consumidores es bueno.
For consumers that is good.
Para los países que producen petróleo, no tanto.
For oil-producing countries, not so much.
And that's a fascinating tension.
Russia, for instance, needs oil above a certain price to fund its war in Ukraine.
Venezuela needs it even higher.
A sharp drop in oil would be a geopolitical event in its own right, completely separate from whatever's happening between Washington and Tehran.
Y España también nota los precios del petróleo directamente.
And Spain also notices oil prices directly.
Cuando el petróleo sube, la electricidad sube, el transporte sube, todo sube.
When oil goes up, electricity goes up, transport goes up, everything goes up.
Aquí en Madrid, la gente ya está enfadada con el gobierno por el coste de la vida.
Here in Madrid, people are already angry with the government over the cost of living.
Hoy mismo hay miles de personas en las calles.
Today there are thousands of people in the streets.
Right, the Sánchez protests.
And I wonder how much of that anger — even if it's focused on corruption scandals — has an energy cost of living dimension underneath it.
People rarely separate those things neatly.
No, nunca.
No, never.
La economía y la política están siempre mezcladas.
The economy and politics are always mixed together.
La gente no distingue entre 'el gobierno es corrupto' y 'no puedo pagar la factura de la luz'.
People don't distinguish between 'the government is corrupt' and 'I can't pay my electricity bill.' The two problems are felt together.
Los dos problemas se sienten juntos.
Going back to the deal for a moment — there's one piece I haven't seen anyone really grapple with.
The memorandum of understanding they're trying to finalize.
An MOU is not a treaty.
It's not binding under international law.
It's closer to a handshake in writing.
Eso es muy importante.
That is very important.
Un memorándum de entendimiento dice 'queremos hacer esto', pero no obliga a nadie legalmente.
A memorandum of understanding says 'we want to do this,' but it doesn't legally oblige anyone.
Los mercados van a saber eso.
The markets will know that.
Si los inversores no confían en el acuerdo, los precios del petróleo no van a bajar mucho.
If investors don't trust the deal, oil prices won't fall much.
Markets are ruthless about that.
They'll price in the probability of the deal holding, not just the fact of it being announced.
And given the history here — Iran negotiations have collapsed before — I'd expect traders to be cautious.
Sí, el acuerdo nuclear de 2015, el JCPOA, fue un ejemplo perfecto.
Yes, the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA, was a perfect example.
Obama negoció el acuerdo.
Obama negotiated the deal.
Trump lo canceló en 2018.
Trump canceled it in 2018.
Para Irán, eso fue una lección muy difícil sobre la confianza con Estados Unidos.
For Iran, that was a very hard lesson about trust with the United States.
And now the same Trump who tore it up is the one announcing a new deal.
I genuinely don't know how Tehran's negotiators think about that.
Is the fact that it's Trump again an advantage or a liability?
He did it once.
He can do it again.
Es una pregunta muy buena.
That is a very good question.
Algunos analistas dicen que Irán prefiere negociar con Trump porque Trump puede tomar decisiones rápidas.
Some analysts say Iran prefers negotiating with Trump because Trump can make quick decisions.
Con Biden, el Congreso era un problema.
With Biden, Congress was a problem.
Con Trump, si él decide algo, lo hace.
With Trump, if he decides something, he does it.
Pero tienes razón, la confianza es muy frágil.
But you are right, trust is very fragile.
Pakistan as mediator is interesting too.
It's a country that has its own complicated relationship with both Washington and Tehran, shares a long border with Iran, and desperately needs to project diplomatic relevance right now.
There's something in this for everyone.
Claro.
Of course.
Pakistán quiere mostrar que puede ser un actor importante en la diplomacia internacional.
Pakistan wants to show it can be an important actor in international diplomacy.
Y si el acuerdo funciona, puede decir: 'nosotros ayudamos a resolver esto.' Es muy valioso para su imagen en el mundo.
And if the deal works, it can say: 'we helped resolve this.' That is very valuable for its image in the world.
Alright, big picture: if this deal holds, if the Strait reopens properly over the next several weeks, what does that actually look like for global business?
What's the realistic best case?
El mejor caso: los precios del petróleo bajan un poco, los seguros marítimos bajan mucho, y los barcos vuelven a usar la ruta normal.
The best case: oil prices fall a little, maritime insurance falls a lot, and ships go back to using the normal route.
Eso reduce los costes de transporte en todo el mundo.
That reduces transport costs worldwide.
Y con menos inflación energética, los bancos centrales pueden ser más tranquilos con los tipos de interés.
And with less energy inflation, central banks can be more relaxed about interest rates.
The interest rate connection is real and underappreciated.
Energy prices feed into inflation, inflation feeds into rate decisions, rate decisions affect mortgage costs, business lending, everything.
A fifty-kilometer strait in the Gulf has a line to your monthly mortgage payment.
That's not hyperbole.
No, tienes razón.
No, you are right.
Y creo que muchas personas no ven esa conexión.
And I think many people don't see that connection.
Ven las noticias de un conflicto en el Golfo y piensan: 'eso está muy lejos'.
They see the news of a conflict in the Gulf and think: 'that is very far away.' But the price of gasoline, the price of electricity, the price of food, everything is connected.
Pero el precio de la gasolina, el precio de la electricidad, el precio de la comida, todo está conectado.
That's actually the through-line of this whole episode, and I think it's the thing worth sitting with.
Strangers negotiating in a hotel in Muscat over seventy-two hours — the outcome lands on people's grocery receipts in Madrid, in Seoul, in Lagos.
Y por eso la economía global es tan difícil de entender, pero también tan fascinante.
And that is why the global economy is so hard to understand, but also so fascinating.
Todo depende de todo.
Everything depends on everything.
Oye, antes dijiste algo que me quedé pensando: 'hay algo en esto para todo el mundo'.
Hey, you said something earlier that stuck with me: 'there's something in this for everyone.' In Spanish there's a perfect expression for that.
En español hay una expresión perfecta para eso.
Go on — what's the expression?
Decimos 'cada uno arrima el ascua a su sardina'.
We say 'cada uno arrima el ascua a su sardina'.
Significa que cada persona, o cada país, hace las cosas para ganar algo para sí mismo.
It means that each person, or each country, does things to gain something for themselves.
'Arrimar' significa acercar, y 'ascua' es el carbón caliente.
'Arrimar' means to draw closer, and 'ascua' is hot coal.
Imagina que cada uno acerca el fuego a su propio pescado para cocinarlo.
Imagine everyone drawing the fire toward their own fish to cook it.
Everyone's pulling the heat toward their own sardine.
That's a much more vivid image than 'looking out for number one.' And honestly?
It describes this entire Hormuz negotiation better than any diplomatic language I've seen this week.
Exacto.
Exactly.
Pakistán arrima el ascua a su sardina.
Pakistan pulls the heat to its sardine.
Irán arrima el ascua a su sardina.
Iran pulls the heat to its sardine.
Trump arrima el ascua a su sardina.
Trump pulls the heat to his sardine.
Y mientras tanto, cien barcos esperan para saber si pueden pasar.
And meanwhile, one hundred ships wait to find out whether they can pass.
Cada uno arrima el ascua a su sardina.
I'm going to use that.
Probably incorrectly, but I'm going to use it.
Fletcher, con tu nivel de español, quizás dices que arrimas el agua a tu serpiente.
Fletcher, with your level of Spanish, you'll probably say you're drawing the water toward your snake.
Pero te damos puntos por intentarlo.
But we'll give you points for trying.