El precio de viajar: la guerra, el petróleo y el verano europeo

You drive from France into Spain and there's just a sign.

No checkpoint, no customs, nothing.

It was one of the great achievements of European integration.

And now that same open border is creating a logistical headache for Slovenia.

Exacto.

Exactly.

Y es una ironía, no.

And it's an irony, isn't it.

La misma libertad que hace que viajar por Europa sea tan fácil, ahora causa un problema para un país pequeño.

The same freedom that makes traveling around Europe so easy, now causes a problem for a small country.

Eslovenia tiene menos de dos millones de personas.

Slovenia has fewer than two million people.

No puede ser el surtidor de gasolina de toda la región.

It can't be the gas station for the whole region.

Less than two million people.

To put that in context, that's smaller than the city of Austin.

So let's bring in the Iran connection, because that's really where this starts.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, was trading just below a hundred dollars a barrel this week, and that's actually down, because Trump announced there might be a deal with Iran.

Sí.

Yes.

El petróleo bajó un once por ciento en un día cuando Trump dijo que las conversaciones con Irán fueron muy buenas.

Oil fell eleven percent in one day when Trump said the talks with Iran were very good.

Eso es mucho.

That's a lot.

El mercado reaccionó muy rápido.

The market reacted very quickly.

Pero antes de ese anuncio, los precios estaban muy altos porque la guerra interrumpió la producción de petróleo en la región.

But before that announcement, prices were very high because the war interrupted oil production in the region.

Eleven percent in a single day.

That's the kind of volatility that makes airlines and travel companies deeply nervous, because their entire business model depends on being able to predict fuel costs months in advance.

A ver, para el viajero normal, el impacto es directo.

Well, for the average traveler, the impact is direct.

Cuando el precio del petróleo subió tanto, los billetes de avión también subieron.

When the price of oil went up so much, plane tickets also went up.

Las compañías aéreas añadieron recargos por combustible.

Airlines added fuel surcharges.

Un vuelo de Madrid a Nueva York, por ejemplo, costó mucho más que hace seis meses.

A flight from Madrid to New York, for example, cost much more than six months ago.

The fuel surcharge.

Airlines have this wonderful way of burying extra costs in the fine print.

You find a ticket for two hundred euros and by the time you've gone through the booking process it's three fifty.

And the fuel surcharge is always there, quietly doing its work.

Bueno, y en Europa el coche sigue siendo muy importante para viajar.

Well, and in Europe the car is still very important for travel.

Muchas familias hicieron sus planes de verano hace meses.

Many families made their summer plans months ago.

Reservaron casas en la playa, en el campo.

They booked houses at the beach, in the countryside.

Y ahora el viaje en coche cuesta mucho más de lo que pensaron.

And now the car journey costs much more than they thought.

Es un problema real.

It's a real problem.

I drove across four countries last summer when I was visiting some old colleagues in Germany.

Through France, through Switzerland.

And you notice the fuel prices at every single stop.

It becomes almost a game, trying to figure out where to fill up.

I imagine right now that calculation is a lot more stressful.

Sí.

Yes.

Y hay una diferencia importante entre Europa y los Estados Unidos.

And there is an important difference between Europe and the United States.

En Europa, la gasolina ya era cara antes de la guerra.

In Europe, gasoline was already expensive before the war.

Los gobiernos ponen impuestos muy altos al combustible.

Governments put very high taxes on fuel.

Entonces, cuando el precio del petróleo sube, el impacto es grande porque ya empezabas desde un precio alto.

So when the price of oil goes up, the impact is big because you were already starting from a high price.

That's a really important point.

Americans complain about gas prices constantly, and I understand why, but they're still paying roughly half what Europeans pay per liter.

The tax structure is completely different.

European governments use fuel taxes partly to fund public transport, partly to discourage car use.

It's a very different philosophy.

La verdad es que en Europa puedes viajar sin coche de una manera que en Estados Unidos es muy difícil.

The truth is that in Europe you can travel without a car in a way that is very difficult in the United States.

Los trenes son buenos, los autobuses también.

The trains are good, the buses too.

Cuando la gasolina sube mucho, muchas personas cambian al tren.

When gasoline goes up a lot, many people switch to the train.

En España, por ejemplo, los trenes de alta velocidad son muy populares y no son tan caros.

In Spain, for example, high-speed trains are very popular and are not that expensive.

The AVE.

I took it from Madrid to Seville a couple of years ago and it was, honestly, one of the most pleasant travel experiences I've had.

Two and a half hours, comfortable, you arrive in the center of the city.

It completely changed the way I think about train travel.

Mira, me alegra que lo digas.

Look, I'm glad you say that.

España tiene una de las mejores redes de trenes de alta velocidad del mundo.

Spain has one of the best high-speed rail networks in the world.

Más kilómetros que Alemania o Francia.

More kilometers than Germany or France.

Cuando el gobierno invirtió en eso, muchas personas dejaron de usar el avión para viajes dentro del país.

When the government invested in that, many people stopped using the plane for trips within the country.

Es una alternativa real.

It's a real alternative.

So here's a question though.

The EU has twenty-seven member states.

When one country like Slovenia runs into a fuel crisis, what can Brussels actually do?

Can the EU coordinate a response, or is each country just on its own?

Bueno, la UE tiene reservas estratégicas de petróleo, como una protección para situaciones de emergencia.

Well, the EU has strategic oil reserves, like a protection for emergency situations.

En 2022, cuando Rusia cortó el gas a Europa, la Unión Europea coordinó una respuesta.

In 2022, when Russia cut gas to Europe, the European Union coordinated a response.

Pero la verdad es que cada país también tomó sus propias decisiones.

But the truth is that each country also made its own decisions.

Eslovenia tomó esta decisión sola.

Slovenia made this decision on its own.

And that 2022 moment is worth dwelling on for a second.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine forced Europe to confront something it had been avoiding for decades: the fact that it was dangerously dependent on a single authoritarian state for its energy.

Now, a few years later, a different conflict is creating a different but related problem.

Europe's energy vulnerability keeps getting tested.

Es que Europa siempre dependió mucho del petróleo de otras regiones.

Europe always depended a lot on oil from other regions.

Del Golfo Pérsico, de Rusia, de África del Norte.

From the Persian Gulf, from Russia, from North Africa.

Cuando hay una crisis en cualquiera de esos lugares, Europa siente el impacto.

When there's a crisis in any of those places, Europe feels the impact.

En 1973, fue el embargo árabe.

In 1973, it was the Arab embargo.

En 2022, fue Rusia.

In 2022, it was Russia.

Ahora, es Irán.

Now, it's Iran.

A recurring pattern.

And the 1973 embargo is worth understanding properly, because it reshaped everything.

OPEC cut off oil to the US and Netherlands specifically, in retaliation for their support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War.

But the effects spread everywhere.

Speed limits dropped.

Airlines cut flights.

Tourism collapsed in parts of Europe.

A ver, y ahora estamos antes del verano, que es la temporada más importante para el turismo en Europa.

Well, and now we are before the summer, which is the most important season for tourism in Europe.

Julio y agosto son los meses cuando millones de personas viajan.

July and August are the months when millions of people travel.

Si los precios del combustible siguen altos, muchas familias van a cambiar sus planes.

If fuel prices remain high, many families will change their plans.

Un viaje largo en coche se convierte en algo muy caro.

A long car trip becomes something very expensive.

The implications for southern European tourism especially.

Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal.

These economies depend enormously on summer visitors who drive down from northern Europe.

German families, Dutch families, French families in their cars with the bikes on the back.

If that trip suddenly costs two hundred euros more in fuel, some of them will stay closer to home.

Sí, y eso es muy importante para España.

Yes, and that is very important for Spain.

El turismo es casi el trece por ciento de nuestra economía.

Tourism is almost thirteen percent of our economy.

El año pasado, España recibió a casi noventa y cuatro millones de turistas.

Last year, Spain received almost ninety-four million tourists.

Si los precios del combustible son muy altos, o si los billetes de avión son caros, ese número puede bajar.

If fuel prices are very high, or if plane tickets are expensive, that number can fall.

Ninety-four million tourists.

That's more than double Spain's population visiting in a single year.

The scale of that is staggering.

And here's what gets me about the travel economics: it's not just whether people travel, it's where they go and how they get there.

High fuel costs push people toward shorter trips, closer destinations, and trains over planes.

Exacto.

Exactly.

Y hay otro factor.

And there is another factor.

Las compañías de bajo coste, como Ryanair o Vueling, construyeron su negocio con el petróleo barato.

Low-cost airlines, like Ryanair or Vueling, built their business on cheap oil.

Cuando el precio del combustible sube mucho, es muy difícil para ellas mantener los precios bajos.

When the price of fuel goes up a lot, it is very difficult for them to keep prices low.

Los vuelos de diez euros no existen cuando el petróleo está a cien dólares el barril.

Ten-euro flights don't exist when oil is at a hundred dollars a barrel.

The ten-euro flight.

That was genuinely transformative.

I remember when budget airlines opened up Europe in a way that had never existed before.

A kid from a small city in Poland could fly to Barcelona for less than a bus ticket.

That democratized travel completely.

And a sustained high oil price could slowly undo some of that.

La verdad es que hay una parte de mí que piensa que tal vez demasiados vuelos baratos también fue un problema.

The truth is there is a part of me that thinks that perhaps too many cheap flights was also a problem.

Para el medioambiente, para las ciudades con demasiado turismo.

For the environment, for cities with too much tourism.

Barcelona, Venecia, Amsterdam.

Barcelona, Venice, Amsterdam.

Pero entiendo que para mucha gente, esos vuelos baratos cambiaron su vida.

But I understand that for many people, those cheap flights changed their life.

No, you're absolutely right about that tension.

Overtourism is a real phenomenon, and cheap flights were a major driver of it.

But the answer probably isn't a war in the Middle East making everything expensive.

There's a better way to manage it than that.

Claro.

Of course.

Y hay una pregunta más grande.

And there's a bigger question.

Si estas crisis de petróleo pasan cada diez o quince años, ¿cuándo van a cambiar los países de verdad?

If these oil crises happen every ten or fifteen years, when are countries really going to change?

Los coches eléctricos, los trenes, las energías renovables.

Electric cars, trains, renewable energies.

La tecnología ya existe.

The technology already exists.

Pero el cambio es muy lento.

But the change is very slow.

And actually, there's an interesting footnote to this week's news on exactly that point.

A German court rejected a lawsuit that wanted to ban BMW and Mercedes from selling combustion engine cars after 2030.

So even in Germany, the transition is contested.

The timeline is not settled.

Mira, eso es muy simbólico.

Look, that is very symbolic.

Alemania es el país de los coches.

Germany is the country of cars.

BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen.

BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen.

Para muchos alemanes, el coche no es solo un transporte, es una identidad.

For many Germans, the car is not just transportation, it is an identity.

Cambiar eso es muy difícil, incluso cuando el petróleo sube tanto.

Changing that is very difficult, even when oil rises so much.

The car as identity.

That's true in the United States too, maybe even more so.

I grew up in a culture where your first car was a rite of passage.

And yet every time oil spikes, every time there's a war in the Gulf, every time someone in Slovenia has to ration fuel, you can see what the real cost of that identity is.

Bueno, y para terminar, quiero decir algo práctico para los viajeros.

Well, and to finish, I want to say something practical for travelers.

Si tienes planes de viaje este verano en Europa, es buena idea buscar alternativas.

If you have travel plans this summer in Europe, it is a good idea to look for alternatives.

El tren es una opción muy buena.

The train is a very good option.

Reserva pronto porque los asientos se llenan rápido.

Book early because seats fill up quickly.

Y si vas en coche, planifica bien la ruta.

And if you go by car, plan the route well.

Practical advice from Octavio: book your train early, plan your route, and maybe don't show up at the Slovenian border with a collection of jerry cans.

The extraordinary thing about this whole story is that it connects a diplomatic standoff in Tehran to a family's summer vacation in Croatia.

That's how interconnected the world is now.

Es que el mundo del viaje cambió mucho.

The thing is, the world of travel changed a lot.

Antes, una guerra en Oriente Medio era algo muy lejano para una familia en Alemania o Francia.

Before, a war in the Middle East was something very distant for a family in Germany or France.

Ahora, esa guerra cambia el precio de su gasolina, de su billete de avión, de sus vacaciones.

Now, that war changes the price of their gasoline, their plane ticket, their vacation.

Todo está conectado.

Everything is connected.

Everything is connected.

That's a good place to land.

Before we wrap up, let's pull out a few words that came up today that are worth knowing if you're traveling in the Spanish-speaking world or just building your vocabulary.

Octavio, you want to kick us off?

A ver, una palabra muy útil para viajeros: el depósito.

Well, a very useful word for travelers: el depósito.

Es el depósito de gasolina del coche.

It is the fuel tank of the car.

Puedes decir: necesito llenar el depósito.

You can say: I need to fill the tank.

O preguntar: ¿dónde está la gasolinera más cercana?

Or ask: where is the nearest gas station?

La gasolinera es la estación de servicio, donde vendes gasolina.

La gasolinera is the service station, where you sell gasoline.

So, to recap today: Slovenia became the first EU country to ration fuel because of a price gap created by the Iran war driving up oil costs globally.

We went deep on what that means for European travel this summer, the history of oil crises reshaping how people move, and whether high fuel prices might finally push the shift to trains and electric vehicles.

Big topic, real consequences.

Exacto.

Exactly.

Y la próxima vez que pagues mucho por un billete de avión o por la gasolina, recuerda: hay una historia larga detrás de ese precio.

And the next time you pay a lot for a plane ticket or for gasoline, remember: there is a long history behind that price.

Una historia de guerras, de política, de decisiones de gobiernos, y también de nuestros propios hábitos de viaje.

A history of wars, of politics, of government decisions, and also of our own travel habits.

Hasta la próxima.

Until next time.