B1 · Intermediate
9 min
climateconflictafricaenvironmentgeopolitics
The Lake That Vanished: Climate, Conflict, and the Sahel
El lago que desapareció: clima, conflicto y el Sahel
This week, 29 people were killed in an Islamic State attack in Adamawa State, Nigeria. Fletcher and Octavio dig into the connection between climate change, the shrinking of Lake Chad, and the cycle of violence spreading across the Sahel.
Esta semana, 29 personas murieron en un ataque del Estado Islámico en el estado de Adamawa, Nigeria. Fletcher y Octavio exploran la conexión entre el cambio climático, la desaparición del lago Chad y la violencia en el Sahel.
7 essential B1-level terms from this episode, with translations and example sentences in Spanish.
| Spanish | English | Example |
|---|---|---|
| desertificación | desertification | La desertificación avanza en el Sahel porque hay menos lluvia cada año. |
| recursos naturales | natural resources | Cuando el lago desapareció, la gente perdió sus recursos naturales más importantes. |
| avanzar | to advance, to move forward, to progress | El desierto del Sahara avanza hacia el sur cada año. |
| catástrofe ecológica | ecological catastrophe | La desaparición del lago Chad es una catástrofe ecológica para millones de personas. |
| superficie | surface area, surface | El lago Chad perdió casi el 90% de su superficie en cincuenta años. |
| desplazamiento | displacement, forced movement | El desplazamiento de millones de personas creó una crisis muy grave en la región. |
| conflicto | conflict | El cambio climático y la pobreza pueden crear más conflictos en el futuro. |
Twenty-nine people killed in a town called Guyaku, in northeast Nigeria.
Islamic State gunmen.
The headline is a tragedy.
But the story underneath it is something I've been turning over all week, because it's not really a terrorism story.
Claro.
Right.
Adamawa es un estado en el noreste de Nigeria, muy cerca del lago Chad.
Adamawa is a state in northeast Nigeria, very close to Lake Chad.
Y el lago Chad es uno de los ejemplos más dramáticos del cambio climático en el mundo.
And Lake Chad is one of the most dramatic examples of climate change in the world.
Walk me through it.
Because I want to establish this for listeners before we get to the violence, because the sequence matters.
En los años sesenta, el lago Chad era enorme.
In the 1960s, Lake Chad was enormous.
Era uno de los lagos más grandes de África.
It was one of the largest lakes in Africa.
Tenía una superficie de unos 25.000 kilómetros cuadrados.
It had a surface area of about 25,000 square kilometers.
That's roughly the size of Lake Erie, for anyone who needs a reference point.
Pero hoy el lago es mucho, mucho más pequeño.
But today the lake is much, much smaller.
Perdió casi el 90% de su agua desde los años sesenta.
It lost almost 90% of its water since the 1960s.
Es una catástrofe ecológica.
It is an ecological catastrophe.
Ninety percent.
I keep having to remind myself that number is real.
What caused it?
Is this purely climate, or is there something else going on?
Es una combinación de cosas.
It is a combination of things.
El clima cambió y hay menos lluvia en la región.
The climate changed and there is less rain in the region.
Pero también hay un problema de agua: los países usaron mucha agua del lago para la agricultura.
But there is also a water problem: the countries used a lot of water from the lake for agriculture.
So you have both global warming driving down the rainfall, and then four countries, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, all drawing from the same source.
A slow-motion competition for a shrinking resource.
Exactamente.
Exactly.
Y alrededor del lago había millones de personas que vivían de la pesca y de la agricultura.
And around the lake there were millions of people who lived from fishing and farming.
Cuando el lago desapareció, ellas perdieron todo.
When the lake disappeared, they lost everything.
I spent time in the Sahel region years ago, reporting on something entirely different, and what struck me was how thoroughly people's lives were organized around water.
Every decision, where you live, what you grow, when you move.
When the water goes, the whole structure goes with it.
Sí, y eso crea un problema muy serio.
Yes, and that creates a very serious problem.
Los pescadores no tienen trabajo.
The fishermen have no work.
Los agricultores no tienen agua.
The farmers have no water.
La gente tiene que moverse, tiene que buscar otra vida.
People have to move, have to look for another life.
And that displacement, millions of people losing their livelihoods, creates exactly the kind of desperation that armed groups exploit.
This is where the violence enters the story.
Claro.
Of course.
Boko Haram empezó a crecer mucho en esta región en los años 2000 y 2010.
Boko Haram started growing a lot in this region in the 2000s and 2010s.
Y muchos de los jóvenes que se unieron al grupo eran personas sin trabajo, sin futuro, sin dinero.
And many of the young people who joined the group were people without work, without a future, without money.
The military analysts have a phrase for it.
They call it the climate-conflict nexus.
It sounds very academic when you say it out loud.
But what it actually describes is a young man who used to fish, who can't fish anymore, and who now has someone offering him a gun and a purpose.
Es verdad.
That's true.
Y el Estado Islámico, después de perder territorio en Siria e Irak, buscó nuevas regiones.
And Islamic State, after losing territory in Syria and Iraq, looked for new regions.
África occidental fue una opción muy importante para ellos.
West Africa was a very important option for them.
There's a franchise model at work here, essentially.
The brand, the ideology, the financing structures moved into a vacuum that the climate crisis helped create.
And Adamawa sits right in the middle of all of that.
Y no es solo Nigeria.
And it is not only Nigeria.
En Mali, en Níger, en Burkina Faso, hay grupos similares.
In Mali, in Niger, in Burkina Faso, there are similar groups.
Toda la región del Sahel tiene los mismos problemas: el clima, la pobreza y la violencia.
The whole Sahel region has the same problems: the climate, poverty, and violence.
Mali came up in the news this week too, actually.
The military withdrawing from Tessalit under pressure from JNIM.
Same pattern, different country.
Exactamente.
Exactly.
El Sahel es una región muy grande, muy pobre y muy caliente.
The Sahel is a very large, very poor, and very hot region.
Las temperaturas en el Sahel aumentan más rápido que en muchas otras partes del mundo.
Temperatures in the Sahel are rising faster than in many other parts of the world.
The IPCC data on this is pretty striking.
The Sahel is warming at roughly one and a half times the global average.
Which means the projections for water scarcity in the region are not speculative.
They are already arriving.
Y hay otro problema muy importante: el desierto del Sahara crece cada año.
And there is another very important problem: the Sahara desert grows every year.
Avanza hacia el sur.
It advances southward.
Esto se llama desertificación.
This is called desertification.
Más tierra se convierte en desierto.
More land becomes desert.
The desert is eating the farmland.
And at the same time the lake is vanishing.
You've got pressure from above and pressure from below.
Sí.
Yes.
Y la población de la región crece mucho.
And the population of the region grows a lot.
Hay más personas y menos recursos naturales.
There are more people and fewer natural resources.
Esa combinación es muy peligrosa.
That combination is very dangerous.
There's a plan, and I'm genuinely curious what you think of it, called the Great Green Wall.
The African Union's initiative to plant a belt of trees across the entire width of the continent, from Senegal to Djibouti, to hold back the desert.
Have you followed that at all?
Sí, conozco el proyecto.
Yes, I know the project.
La idea es buena, pero la realidad es complicada.
The idea is good, but the reality is complicated.
Los gobiernos prometieron plantar millones de árboles, pero el progreso fue muy lento.
Governments promised to plant millions of trees, but progress was very slow.
The last estimate I saw put completion at something like eleven percent of the original goal.
By 2030.
Which is not encouraging.
El problema es el dinero y también la seguridad.
The problem is money and also security.
Muchas partes de la región donde hay que plantar los árboles son zonas de conflicto.
Many parts of the region where the trees need to be planted are conflict zones.
Es difícil plantar árboles cuando hay violencia.
It is difficult to plant trees when there is violence.
Which brings you back to the loop.
The climate crisis drives the conflict, and the conflict makes it impossible to respond to the climate crisis.
Round and round.
Es un círculo muy difícil de romper.
It is a very difficult circle to break.
Los países del Sahel necesitan mucha ayuda internacional, pero los países ricos no siempre dan el dinero que prometieron para el clima.
The Sahel countries need a lot of international help, but the rich countries do not always give the money they promised for the climate.
The hundred billion dollar climate finance pledge.
Made in 2009 at Copenhagen.
Supposed to be delivered annually to developing nations by 2020.
It was late, partial, and significantly composed of loans rather than grants.
That's not a minor accounting detail.
It shapes whether countries like Nigeria can actually build resilience or just take on more debt.
Y mientras tanto la gente en Adamawa vive con la violencia.
And meanwhile the people in Adamawa live with the violence.
Las 29 personas que murieron esta semana en Guyaku: esas personas no hablaron en ninguna conferencia de clima.
The 29 people who died this week in Guyaku: those people did not speak at any climate conference.
No.
They didn't.
And I think that's the thing about covering conflicts like this one from a distance.
You can describe the geopolitics, the armed groups, the strategic dynamics.
But the actual cost is someone's family in a small town in northeastern Nigeria on a Monday.
Completamente de acuerdo.
Completely agreed.
Y para los oyentes que quieren entender el Sahel, la clave es esta: el cambio climático no es solo una historia del futuro.
And for listeners who want to understand the Sahel, the key point is this: climate change is not just a story of the future.
Es una historia del presente, y la vemos en los ataques de esta semana.
It is a story of the present, and we see it in this week's attacks.
Octavio, something you said earlier caught my ear, and I want to circle back.
You said the desert, quote, avanza hacia el sur, it advances to the south.
I've heard that verb before but I keep second-guessing myself on it.
Avanzar.
Avanzar.
Sí, es un verbo muy útil.
Yes, it is a very useful verb.
Significa moverse hacia adelante, progresar en una dirección.
It means to move forward, to progress in a direction.
El ejército avanza.
The army advances.
La ciencia avanza.
Science advances.
El desierto avanza.
The desert advances.
So it's not limited to physical movement?
You can use it for an idea, a situation, something more abstract?
Sí, exactamente.
Yes, exactly.
Puedes decir, por ejemplo, "las negociaciones avanzan" o "el proyecto avanza lentamente." Es muy natural en español para describir progreso, bueno o malo.
You can say, for example, "the negotiations are advancing" or "the project is advancing slowly." It is very natural in Spanish to describe progress, good or bad.
And the desert advancing is definitely the bad kind of progress.
Though I suppose from the desert's perspective it's doing very well for itself.
El desierto no tiene perspectiva, Fletcher.
The desert has no perspective, Fletcher.
Pero tú tienes razón en algo: avanzar describe el movimiento sin juzgar si es bueno o malo.
But you are right about one thing: avanzar describes movement without judging whether it is good or bad.
El contexto decide eso.
The context decides that.
A neutral verb in a very dark story.
That feels right, actually.
Thanks for indulging me on that.
And thanks everyone for listening.
The Lake Chad basin is one of those places where everything converges: climate, poverty, governance, conflict.
Worth watching.
Y la próxima vez que alguien hable del cambio climático como un problema del futuro, recuerda Guyaku.
And the next time someone talks about climate change as a problem of the future, remember Guyaku.
El clima ya avanza, y no siempre en la dirección correcta.
The climate is already advancing, and not always in the right direction.