El Vuelo Más Caro: Cuando una Guerra Lejana Encarece tu Billete

Here's what gets me.

Chinese airlines, particularly Air China and China Southern, they are huge.

Air China alone carries over a hundred million passengers a year.

So we're talking about an enormous amount of fuel consumption, and therefore an enormous amount of exposure to exactly this kind of price spike.

Bueno, y aquí hay que añadir un dato que mucha gente ignora: China es el segundo mayor importador de petróleo del mundo, solo por detrás de Estados Unidos en algunos años.

Well, and here we need to add a fact that many people overlook: China is the world's second largest oil importer, behind only the United States in some years.

Y una parte muy significativa de ese petróleo viene precisamente del Golfo Pérsico, de Arabia Saudí, de Irak, de los Emiratos.

And a very significant portion of that oil comes precisely from the Persian Gulf, from Saudi Arabia, from Iraq, from the Emirates.

O sea, la guerra en Irán no es un asunto lejano para la economía china.

So the war in Iran is not a distant matter for the Chinese economy.

Es un asunto de seguridad energética nacional.

It is a matter of national energy security.

I spent time in Beijing years ago, reporting on the run-up to the 2008 Olympics.

And one thing that struck me then was how rapidly Chinese domestic aviation was expanding.

I mean, you'd land at airports in second-tier cities and they looked brand new, because they were brand new.

Claro.

Of course.

China construyó su red de aviación doméstica a una velocidad que no tiene precedentes históricos.

China built its domestic aviation network at a speed that has no historical precedent.

En los años noventa, volar era algo reservado a la élite o a los funcionarios del partido.

In the nineties, flying was something reserved for the elite or party officials.

En los dos mil, empezó a democratizarse.

In the two thousands, it began to democratize.

Y desde entonces, el crecimiento ha sido brutal: cientos de aeropuertos nuevos, flotas que se multiplicaron por diez.

And since then the growth has been extraordinary: hundreds of new airports, fleets that multiplied tenfold.

La aviación comercial se convirtió en símbolo del ascenso de la clase media china.

Commercial aviation became a symbol of the rise of the Chinese middle class.

So that's the context.

You've got this massive, relatively young aviation industry, built on the assumption of reasonably affordable fuel, and now that assumption is being tested.

What do Chinese airlines actually do when oil hits these levels?

They're not just raising surcharges and hoping for the best, are they?

No, no, espera.

No, no, wait.

Hay una herramienta financiera que usan las aerolíneas grandes de todo el mundo: la cobertura de riesgo, lo que en inglés llaman hedging.

There's a financial tool that large airlines around the world use: risk hedging.

Básicamente, la aerolínea compra petróleo a futuro, a un precio fijado de antemano, para protegerse de las subidas.

Basically, the airline buys oil futures at a price fixed in advance, to protect itself from price increases.

Si el precio sube, han ganado.

If the price goes up, they've won.

Si baja, han pagado de más.

If it goes down, they've overpaid.

Pero las aerolíneas chinas han sido históricamente menos sofisticadas en esto que las europeas o las estadounidenses.

But Chinese airlines have historically been less sophisticated at this than European or American ones.

That's interesting, because I would have assumed state ownership would make them more conservative, more inclined to hedge.

But you're saying the opposite.

A ver, es una paradoja, sí.

Well, it's a paradox, yes.

Las aerolíneas chinas son en gran medida propiedad del Estado, y eso en principio debería darles un colchón financiero.

Chinese airlines are largely state-owned, and that in principle should give them a financial cushion.

Pero también significa que sus decisiones de gestión del riesgo están más orientadas por la política que por la lógica puramente financiera.

But it also means their risk management decisions are more driven by policy than by purely financial logic.

Y en 2008, algunas de ellas perdieron cantidades enormes de dinero en operaciones de cobertura mal ejecutadas.

And in 2008, some of them lost enormous amounts of money on badly executed hedging operations.

Desde entonces, han sido mucho más cautelosas.

Since then, they've been much more cautious.

The extraordinary thing is that 2008 failure you're describing happened right during the period of maximum expansion.

They were growing fastest at exactly the moment they got burned worst on fuel strategy.

Exactamente.

Exactly.

Y ese trauma financiero todavía influye en cómo gestionan el riesgo hoy.

And that financial trauma still influences how they manage risk today.

Lo cual nos lleva de vuelta al recargo: si no puedes o no quieres cubrir el riesgo en los mercados de futuros, entonces lo que haces es trasladarlo al pasajero lo antes posible.

Which brings us back to the surcharge: if you can't or won't hedge risk in the futures markets, then what you do is pass it on to the passenger as quickly as possible.

Y eso es precisamente lo que han hecho esta semana Air China y las demás.

And that's precisely what Air China and the others did this week.

Look, let me push on something.

Nine to eighteen dollars.

Is that actually enough to change behavior?

I mean, will Chinese travelers decide not to fly because of an eighteen-dollar surcharge?

Bueno, en términos absolutos, probablemente no para la mayoría de los pasajeros.

Well, in absolute terms, probably not for most passengers.

Pero hay que pensar en el contexto.

But you have to think about the context.

China tiene una clase media enorme pero que en muchos casos opera con márgenes relativamente ajustados.

China has an enormous middle class but one that in many cases operates with relatively tight margins.

Un trabajador de una ciudad de segundo nivel que vuela a ver a su familia una o dos veces al año sí nota esos incrementos acumulados.

A worker from a second-tier city who flies to see their family once or twice a year does notice those accumulated increases.

Y si encima los billetes base también suben, el efecto combinado puede ser significativo.

And if the base fares also go up on top of that, the combined effect can be significant.

And China has high-speed rail.

I mean, this is worth saying.

For a lot of those domestic routes, there is an alternative.

The Beijing-Shanghai train is faster than the flight when you factor in airports.

La red de alta velocidad china es, sin duda, uno de los grandes logros de infraestructura del siglo veintiuno.

China's high-speed rail network is, without doubt, one of the great infrastructure achievements of the twenty-first century.

Tiene más kilómetros de alta velocidad que el resto del mundo junto.

It has more high-speed kilometers than the rest of the world combined.

Y sí, cuando el petróleo sube, esa competencia intermodal se vuelve más intensa.

And yes, when oil rises, that intermodal competition becomes more intense.

Las aerolíneas chinas no solo compiten entre sí: compiten con un tren que en muchas rutas ofrece más comodidad, mejor puntualidad y ahora, quizás, mejor precio.

Chinese airlines don't just compete with each other: they compete with a train that on many routes offers more comfort, better punctuality, and now, perhaps, a better price.

So there's an irony there.

The Iran war may actually end up boosting Chinese rail passenger numbers.

Which probably wasn't part of anyone's strategic calculation in Tehran or Washington.

La verdad es que la geopolítica siempre tiene estas consecuencias no previstas que son fascinantes.

The truth is geopolitics always has these unforeseen consequences that are fascinating.

Pero volvamos al fondo de la cuestión, porque creo que hay algo más profundo aquí.

But let's return to the heart of the matter, because I think there's something deeper here.

Esta historia de las aerolíneas chinas y el recargo por combustible es en realidad una historia sobre la vulnerabilidad de China a la inestabilidad del Golfo Pérsico.

This story about Chinese airlines and the fuel surcharge is really a story about China's vulnerability to instability in the Persian Gulf.

Y esa vulnerabilidad tiene implicaciones enormes para la política exterior china.

And that vulnerability has enormous implications for Chinese foreign policy.

Say more about that.

Because China has cultivated relationships with Iran, with Saudi Arabia, with basically everyone in the Gulf.

The whole point of that strategy, I always assumed, was precisely to insulate itself from exactly this kind of disruption.

Mira, China ha apostado por una política de relaciones simultáneas con todos los actores del Golfo, lo que en la jerga diplomática se llama una política de equidistancia.

Look, China has bet on a policy of simultaneous relationships with all the actors in the Gulf, what in diplomatic jargon is called a policy of equidistance.

Pero esa estrategia tiene un límite fundamental: funciona mientras no hay guerra.

But that strategy has a fundamental limit: it works as long as there is no war.

Cuando hay un conflicto armado real, cuando los precios del petróleo se disparan, cuando los barcos no pueden pasar por el Estrecho de Ormuz, la equidistancia se convierte en irrelevancia.

When there is real armed conflict, when oil prices surge, when ships can't pass through the Strait of Hormuz, equidistance becomes irrelevance.

No puedes protegerte del mercado global del petróleo con la diplomacia.

You can't protect yourself from the global oil market with diplomacy.

I covered Beijing's energy diplomacy for a while, and there was always this fundamental tension.

China wants the oil, needs the oil, but doesn't want to project military power the way the U.S.

does.

The American approach, for decades, was to guarantee Gulf security by force.

China never wanted that role.

Es que ese ha sido uno de los grandes beneficios implícitos de la hegemonía estadounidense para China: que el Golfo estuviera estabilizado militarmente por Washington sin que Pekín tuviera que gastar un solo yuan en ello.

That has been one of the great implicit benefits of American hegemony for China: the Gulf being militarily stabilized by Washington without Beijing having to spend a single yuan on it.

China podía importar libremente el petróleo árabe mientras Estados Unidos pagaba el coste de la seguridad.

China could freely import Arab oil while the United States paid the security cost.

Ahora que esa estabilidad se ha roto, China enfrenta una pregunta incómoda que hasta ahora había podido evitar.

Now that stability has broken down, China faces an uncomfortable question it had so far been able to avoid.

Which is: do you just watch your economy absorb these shocks, or do you get involved?

And getting involved carries its own enormous costs and risks.

Exactamente.

Exactly.

Y mientras Pekín delibera, los pasajeros de Air China pagan dieciocho dólares más por sus billetes.

And while Beijing deliberates, Air China passengers pay eighteen dollars more for their tickets.

A veces la macroeconomía global se resume en una línea del desglose de tu billete de avión.

Sometimes global macroeconomics can be summarized in one line of your airline ticket breakdown.

Right.

Now, the longer-term question, and this is where I want to push a bit.

China has been investing heavily in electric vehicles, in solar, in renewable energy.

There's a version of this story where China actually comes out of a prolonged oil shock in a stronger position because it's less dependent on fossil fuels than it used to be.

Is that realistic?

Bueno, para el transporte terrestre, sí, la transición está avanzando a una velocidad impresionante.

Well, for land transport, yes, the transition is advancing at an impressive speed.

China fabrica y vende más coches eléctricos que el resto del mundo junto.

China manufactures and sells more electric cars than the rest of the world combined.

Pero la aviación es el problema.

But aviation is the problem.

No existe hoy en día ninguna tecnología eléctrica viable para vuelos de media distancia.

There is no viable electric technology today for medium-haul flights.

El peso de las baterías lo hace imposible con la tecnología actual.

The weight of batteries makes it impossible with current technology.

La aviación va a seguir dependiendo del queroseno durante al menos dos o tres décadas más.

Aviation will continue to depend on jet fuel for at least two or three more decades.

There's a kind of cruel irony in that.

China builds the world's greatest high-speed rail network, invests massively in EV infrastructure, and still gets punished every time someone fires a missile near the Strait of Hormuz.

La transición energética es asimétrica por naturaleza.

The energy transition is asymmetric by nature.

No puedes descarbonizar todos los sectores al mismo ritmo.

You can't decarbonize all sectors at the same speed.

Y mientras los sectores más difíciles, como la aviación o el transporte marítimo, siguen atados al petróleo, cualquier crisis en los países productores se transmite inmediatamente a esos sectores.

And while the hardest sectors, like aviation or maritime transport, remain tied to oil, any crisis in producing countries is immediately transmitted to those sectors.

Es lo que los economistas llaman dependencia de trayectoria: la inercia tecnológica que te obliga a seguir usando una infraestructura aunque quieras deshacerte de ella.

It's what economists call path dependency: the technological inertia that forces you to keep using an infrastructure even when you want to get rid of it.

I want to come back to something you said earlier about state ownership and how it shapes airline decision-making.

Because there's a question here about what the Chinese government does now.

Not just for the airlines, but for consumers.

Do they absorb some of this cost politically?

Do they subsidize?

A ver, China tiene un historial de subsidiar sectores estratégicos cuando la situación lo requiere.

Well, China has a history of subsidizing strategic sectors when the situation requires it.

Las aerolíneas estatales recibieron subsidios masivos durante la pandemia de covid, cuando el sector estaba prácticamente paralizado.

State-owned airlines received massive subsidies during the covid pandemic, when the sector was practically paralyzed.

Pero hay un límite político: si el Estado cubre indefinidamente el coste de los combustibles para las aerolíneas, está en cierto modo subsidiando a los viajeros de clase media alta, que no son precisamente los más necesitados.

But there's a political limit: if the state indefinitely covers fuel costs for airlines, it is in a sense subsidizing upper-middle-class travelers, who are not exactly the most needy.

Eso puede generar tensiones políticas internas.

That can generate internal political tensions.

No, you're absolutely right about that.

And it connects to a broader challenge the Chinese government has, which is managing rising expectations from a middle class that has grown up expecting air travel to be affordable and accessible.

Es que la clase media china tiene ya una memoria del bienestar.

The Chinese middle class already has a memory of well-being.

Ha experimentado décadas de mejora constante en su nivel de vida.

It has experienced decades of constant improvement in its standard of living.

Y esa experiencia genera expectativas.

And that experience generates expectations.

Cuando esas expectativas no se cumplen, cuando el billete de avión que antes costaba trescientos yuanes ahora cuesta cuatrocientos, la gente lo nota y lo comenta.

When those expectations aren't met, when the plane ticket that used to cost three hundred yuan now costs four hundred, people notice and talk about it.

Y en China, el descontento de la clase media es una de las variables que el partido monitoriza con más atención.

And in China, middle-class discontent is one of the variables the party monitors most carefully.

So we've got a story that starts with three airline companies raising a number on a booking form, and ends up being about the political stability of the world's second largest economy.

I mean, that's why I find economics so addictive.

Pull one thread.

Siempre.

Always.

Y eso que no hemos hablado del efecto que tiene esto sobre las aerolíneas de bajo coste chinas, que son las que han crecido más agresivamente en los últimos años y que tienen márgenes mucho más estrechos que Air China o China Southern.

And we haven't even talked about the effect this has on Chinese low-cost airlines, which are the ones that have grown most aggressively in recent years and have much narrower margins than Air China or China Southern.

Para ellas, un shock de precios de esta magnitud puede ser directamente existencial.

For them, a price shock of this magnitude can be directly existential.

Here's my takeaway from all of this.

The fuel surcharge is almost the perfect economic instrument for making visible something that's usually invisible, which is how deeply connected the global energy market makes things that seem completely separate.

A war in the Persian Gulf, a ticket to fly from Chengdu to Wuhan.

There's a direct line.

Mira, esa es exactamente la lección.

Look, that's exactly the lesson.

El recargo por combustible es un recordatorio de que vivimos en un sistema energético global que no respeta fronteras ni intenciones políticas.

The fuel surcharge is a reminder that we live in a global energy system that respects neither borders nor political intentions.

China puede querer mantenerse al margen de la guerra de Irán, y en términos militares lo está haciendo.

China may want to stay out of the Iran war, and militarily it's doing so.

Pero en términos económicos, ya está pagando el precio.

But in economic terms, it's already paying the price.

Y la pregunta que nadie sabe responder todavía es cuánto tiempo puede seguir siendo así.

And the question that nobody can yet answer is how long that can continue.

And on that genuinely open question, I think we should land the plane.

So to speak.

Thanks for listening, everyone.

If you're learning Spanish, this episode had some great vocabulary around economics and energy policy.

We'll see you next time.

Hasta la próxima.

Until next time.

Y si la próxima vez que compréis un billete de avión veis un recargo por combustible, ya sabéis exactamente de dónde viene y por qué está ahí.

And if the next time you buy a plane ticket you see a fuel surcharge, you now know exactly where it comes from and why it's there.