El último adiós: Moldavia abandona el bloque ruso

Maia Sandu.

She's been president since 2020.

Pro-European, former World Bank economist, studied at Harvard's Kennedy School.

She's been pushing Moldova toward the EU consistently.

La presidenta Sandu es muy importante.

President Sandu is very important.

Ella quiere Europa para Moldavia.

She wants Europe for Moldova.

La gente de Moldavia vota por ella dos veces.

The people of Moldova vote for her twice.

Twice, right.

And Moldova applied for EU membership in 2022, almost immediately after Russia's full invasion of Ukraine.

The EU granted candidate status that same year, which was actually faster than most people expected.

So you have this small, poor country moving genuinely fast toward Europe.

And leaving the CIS is part of that signal.

It's not just symbolic.

It's a statement about which direction Moldova is facing.

Sí, Moldavia quiere entrar en la Unión Europea.

Yes, Moldova wants to join the European Union.

Es el objetivo principal.

That is the main goal.

El CIS es el pasado.

The CIS is the past.

Look, let me ask you something though.

What did the CIS actually do?

Because from the outside, it always looked like a fairly hollow institution.

Russia dominated it, the member states had wildly different interests, and decisions were basically toothless.

Was it ever a functioning body?

La verdad es que el CIS no hace mucho.

The truth is the CIS doesn't do much.

Es más político que práctico.

It is more political than practical.

Rusia habla, los otros escuchan.

Russia talks, the others listen.

Russia talks, the others listen.

That's the CIS in one sentence.

And I think that's exactly why leaving it matters as a signal even if the practical effects are limited.

You're not just leaving a trade agreement.

You're leaving a room where Russia had the chair at the head of the table.

You're saying: that arrangement is over.

Exacto.

Exactly.

Salir del CIS es un mensaje claro.

Leaving the CIS is a clear message.

Moldavia dice: Rusia no es nuestro jefe.

Moldova says: Russia is not our boss.

Moldova isn't the first to do this, either.

Georgia left the CIS in 2008, after Russia invaded its territory and recognized the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent.

Ukraine left in 2018, years before the full invasion.

There's a pattern here.

Countries that have experienced Russian military aggression, directly or indirectly, eventually decide the CIS is not a club they want to belong to.

Georgia sale del CIS en 2008.

Georgia leaves the CIS in 2008.

Ucrania sale en 2018.

Ukraine leaves in 2018.

Ahora Moldavia.

Now Moldova.

Este proceso continúa.

This process continues.

And the statement from Moldova's government specifically mentions the illegal military presence on its territory.

That's Transnistria.

They're naming it explicitly, which is striking.

Moldovan governments have historically been very careful about how they talk about Transnistria, trying not to provoke Moscow.

This is a government that seems to have decided that caution has its limits.

Mira, el gobierno de Moldavia habla con más fuerza ahora.

Look, the Moldovan government speaks with more strength now.

Antes tiene mucho miedo de Rusia.

Before, it was very afraid of Russia.

That shift in tone, from fear to something more assertive, is itself a story.

And I think Ukraine is a big part of why.

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Moldova was terrified.

There were genuine fears that Transnistria might be used as a launching pad, that Moldova could be next.

But here's what happened instead.

Ukraine held.

And that changed the calculation.

Ucrania lucha y resiste.

Ukraine fights and resists.

Moldavia ve esto.

Moldova sees this.

Y ahora tiene más confianza para actuar.

And now it has more confidence to act.

More confidence, and also more support.

The EU has been pumping money and political backing into Moldova.

The United States, before the current administration's foreign policy pivot, was supportive.

NATO has been more engaged.

For a small country that used to feel very exposed, the international environment shifted in a way that made this kind of decisive move possible.

La Unión Europea ayuda a Moldavia con dinero y apoyo político.

The European Union helps Moldova with money and political support.

Europa es un amigo importante ahora.

Europe is an important friend now.

I want to bring up energy, because this is where Russia's leverage was most concrete.

For years, Moldova got its gas almost entirely from Gazprom, the Russian state energy company.

It was cheap, it was reliable, and it was a chain.

When Russia wanted to apply pressure, it could simply raise the price or slow the supply.

Moldova learned this lesson the hard way multiple times.

Sí, Moldova compra gas de Rusia por muchos años.

Yes, Moldova buys gas from Russia for many years.

El gas es barato, pero hay un precio político.

The gas is cheap, but there is a political price.

There's always a political price.

And interestingly, the Transnistrian region actually used Russian gas almost for free, which kept it economically viable as a breakaway territory.

Moscow was essentially subsidizing Transnistria's separation from Moldova.

That's how a frozen conflict gets maintained, not just with soldiers, but with cheap gas.

Transnistria recibe gas barato de Rusia.

Transnistria receives cheap gas from Russia.

Rusia paga para mantener el problema.

Russia pays to keep the problem.

Es una estrategia muy inteligente.

It is a very clever strategy.

Genuinely clever, in a very cynical way.

But that gas supply actually stopped at the start of this year.

Russia did not renew its gas transit agreement through Ukraine when it expired.

So suddenly Transnistria, which had been running on essentially free Russian energy for decades, lost that supply.

The region's economy is now under serious strain.

Which paradoxically might make reunification more discussable than it has been in years.

A ver, ahora Transnistria no tiene gas barato.

Right, now Transnistria doesn't have cheap gas.

La situación económica allí es muy difícil.

The economic situation there is very difficult.

And Moldova, for the first time, is no longer dependent on Russian energy either.

They've been connecting to the European grid, diversifying their sources.

The energy chain has been cut.

So when you add all of this up, the EU candidacy, the energy independence, the collapse of Transnistria's economic model, and now this vote to leave the CIS, you get a picture of a country that is systematically cutting every thread that tied it to Moscow.

Moldavia corta todas las conexiones con Rusia.

Moldova cuts all the connections with Russia.

Poco a poco, paso a paso.

Little by little, step by step.

Es un proceso largo.

It is a long process.

Step by step.

And I think that framing actually tells you something about how small countries navigate great power politics.

They rarely do it all at once.

They can't afford to.

They move incrementally, they test reactions, they build alliances, and they wait for moments when the big power is distracted or weakened.

Moldova has been doing exactly this.

Los países pequeños necesitan ser inteligentes.

Small countries need to be smart.

No pueden luchar contra Rusia directamente.

They cannot fight Russia directly.

Esperan el momento correcto.

They wait for the right moment.

The right moment.

And Russia is genuinely distracted right now.

The war in Ukraine is consuming enormous resources.

The military, the economy, the political attention.

That creates a window for countries like Moldova to make moves they might not have dared make five years ago.

The extraordinary thing is that Sandu and her government seem to understand this clearly and are moving with real urgency.

Rusia está ocupada con Ucrania.

Russia is busy with Ukraine.

Moldavia usa este momento.

Moldova uses this moment.

Es una oportunidad histórica para ellos.

It is a historic opportunity for them.

Historic is the right word.

And I want to think about what Russia's response might look like.

Moscow called this vote illegal and provocative.

But what can they actually do?

They can't easily escalate militarily when they're already stretched in Ukraine.

They've already cut the gas.

The economic levers are diminished.

Russia is not powerless, but it's less powerful over Moldova today than it was three years ago.

Rusia habla con fuerza, pero no actúa mucho ahora.

Russia speaks strongly, but doesn't act much now.

Ucrania ocupa toda su atención militar.

Ukraine occupies all its military attention.

Right.

Russia can still use disinformation, political interference, the Transnistria question.

It can try to destabilize Moldovan politics from the inside.

It already tried that with the 2024 presidential election, where there was documented evidence of a Russian-linked operation trying to buy votes and spread disinformation.

Sandu won anyway.

But the threat of that kind of interference is real and ongoing.

Es que Rusia usa otras armas: noticias falsas, dinero político, propaganda.

The thing is, Russia uses other weapons: fake news, political money, propaganda.

Esto es muy peligroso también.

This is also very dangerous.

Very dangerous.

And arguably harder to defend against than a tank.

But what gives me some optimism, and I don't say that lightly, is public opinion in Moldova.

There was a referendum alongside the 2024 election on whether to enshrine EU membership as a constitutional goal.

It passed, narrowly, but it passed.

Moldovans, when given the direct choice, said: Europe.

Not unanimously, but clearly.

La gente de Moldavia vota por Europa en un referéndum.

The people of Moldova vote for Europe in a referendum.

No es perfecto, pero el resultado es claro.

It is not perfect, but the result is clear.

And that democratic mandate matters.

Because it makes it much harder for any future government to reverse course.

You can't easily say, actually, let's go back to the CIS, when the constitution now says EU membership is a national goal and the people voted for it.

The pro-European trajectory has been locked in, in a way that goes beyond any single politician or party.

Bueno, la constitución dice ahora: Europa es el objetivo.

Well, the constitution now says: Europe is the goal.

Un futuro gobierno no puede cambiar esto fácilmente.

A future government cannot change this easily.

I want to zoom out and think about what this means for the broader post-Soviet space, because I think Moldova is actually part of a larger story.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, there was this idea in Moscow, and I heard versions of it from Russian officials when I was reporting in the region in the late nineties, that the other republics would always orbit Russia.

Geography, language, history, economics, all of it pointed toward continued Russian influence.

Rusia piensa que los países vecinos son siempre parte de su mundo.

Russia thinks that neighboring countries are always part of its world.

Pero esto no es verdad hoy.

But this is not true today.

Not true today.

Georgia is gone from the CIS.

Ukraine is at war with Russia and clearly gone.

Moldova is now leaving.

The Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, never joined and went straight to NATO and the EU.

Belarus is the notable exception, genuinely dependent on Moscow.

But the trajectory among those who had a real choice has been consistently away from Russia.

The CIS is hollowing out.

El CIS pierde miembros importantes cada año.

The CIS loses important members every year.

Georgia, Ucrania, ahora Moldavia.

Georgia, Ukraine, now Moldova.

El bloque es más pequeño y más débil.

The bloc is smaller and weaker.

Smaller and weaker.

And I think that has real implications for how Russia understands its own identity and power.

Part of Putin's entire project, the whole ideological framework behind his presidency, has been the idea that Russia is the center of a civilizational sphere that includes these former Soviet territories.

Every country that leaves that sphere is not just a geopolitical loss.

It's a challenge to that entire worldview.

Para Putin, perder Moldavia no es solo política.

For Putin, losing Moldova is not just politics.

Es un problema de identidad para Rusia.

It is an identity problem for Russia.

Una derrota simbólica importante.

An important symbolic defeat.

Symbolic defeats matter.

They accumulate.

And there's an argument, one I find genuinely persuasive, that the more countries successfully leave Russia's orbit and join European institutions, the more they become living proof that there is an alternative.

That you don't have to accept the Russian model.

That security and prosperity are available on the other side.

Moldova becoming an EU success story, if it gets there, is itself a geopolitical event.

Si Moldavia tiene éxito en Europa, otros países ven esto y piensan: nosotros también podemos hacerlo.

If Moldova succeeds in Europe, other countries see this and think: we can do this too.

Exactly.

It becomes a demonstration effect.

And that's why, I mean, this is a small country, it's not going to change the military balance of Europe on its own, but it matters symbolically and politically in ways that are disproportionate to its size.

Small countries can do big things on the world stage.

I've seen that.

I've reported on it.

Moldova might be doing one of those things right now.

Moldavia es pequeña, pero su decisión es grande.

Moldova is small, but its decision is big.

El futuro del país es muy interesante ahora.

The future of the country is very interesting now.

Very interesting, and genuinely uncertain.

The road to EU membership is long and hard.

There are reforms to implement, corruption to fight, Transnistria to somehow resolve.

None of that is easy.

But here's what this week's vote tells you.

Moldova has decided which direction it's walking.

It's left the room where Russia sat at the head of the table.

It's not going back in.

Moldavia sale de la habitación de Rusia y cierra la puerta.

Moldova leaves Russia's room and closes the door.

Este momento es histórico.

This moment is historic.

No hay regreso.

There is no return.