B1 · Intermediate
15 min
politicshistoryinternational relationsafrica
El Presidente Eterno: Camerún y el Juego de la Sucesión
The Eternal President: Cameroon and the Succession Game
Fletcher breaks down this story in English. Octavio reacts and expands in Spanish. Follow along with the live transcript, tap any word for its translation. Intermediate level — perfect for intermediate learners expanding their range.
So, let's talk about something that happened this week that almost nobody is covering, because everyone is watching the Middle East.
Cameroon's parliament just voted to bring back the office of vice president.
And the reason that matters is the man at the top: Paul Biya, 93 years old, president since 1982.
Bueno, mira, cuando escuché esta noticia, pensé: esto no es una reforma política normal.
Look, when I heard this news, I thought: this is not a normal political reform.
Esto es un mensaje.
This is a message.
Alguien en Camerún está preparando algo.
Someone in Cameroon is getting ready for something.
Right, and that's exactly the question.
Is this Paul Biya himself making the move, or is it the people around him, the inner circle, trying to manage what happens when a 93-year-old man who has run a country for 44 years is no longer there?
Es que esa es la pregunta más importante.
That is the most important question.
Biya no apareció en el parlamento.
Biya did not appear in parliament.
No habló.
He did not speak.
Sus ministros votaron, y el resultado fue casi unánime.
His ministers voted, and the result was almost unanimous.
Noventa y tres por ciento a favor.
Ninety-three percent in favor.
Ninety-three percent.
Which is, I mean, that's the kind of number you get when people are not exactly voting their conscience.
But let's back up, because I think most listeners need a little context on who Paul Biya actually is.
Bueno, Biya llegó al poder en 1982.
Biya came to power in 1982.
Eso es antes de que muchos de nuestros oyentes nacieran.
That is before many of our listeners were born.
Ronald Reagan era presidente de los Estados Unidos.
Ronald Reagan was president of the United States.
Felipe González acababa de ganar las elecciones en España.
Felipe González had just won the elections in Spain.
I was 11 years old.
Which is a sobering thought.
And here's what gets me: he didn't take power in a coup.
He was constitutionally appointed, as prime minister first, then inherited the presidency from Ahmadou Ahidjo, who resigned.
And then he just...
stayed.
Sí, y eso es importante.
Yes, and that is important.
Biya no es un militar.
Biya is not a military man.
Es un hombre del sistema, un tecnócrata que aprendió a controlar el sistema desde dentro.
He is a man of the system, a technocrat who learned to control the system from the inside.
Estudió en París, en Sciences Po.
He studied in Paris, at Sciences Po.
Es un producto de la élite francesa.
He is a product of the French elite.
And that gets us to the Françafrique question, which is the whole shadow architecture of French influence over its former African colonies.
Cameroon sits right in the middle of that story.
France had enormous economic and political interests there, and Biya has, let's say, managed those relationships carefully for four decades.
La verdad es que Camerún es un caso especial.
The truth is that Cameroon is a special case.
Es uno de los pocos países de África que tiene dos idiomas oficiales: francés e inglés.
It is one of the few countries in Africa with two official languages: French and English.
Y eso creó un problema muy serio que todavía existe hoy.
And that created a very serious problem that still exists today.
The Anglophone crisis.
Right.
So for listeners who don't know: the western regions of Cameroon were British-administered after World War One, and when the country unified, those English-speaking regions ended up feeling increasingly marginalized by the French-speaking majority and by Biya's government in Yaoundé.
Exacto.
Exactly.
Y en 2017, la situación se convirtió en una guerra civil.
And in 2017, the situation became a civil war.
Los separatistas anglófonos declararon una república independiente que llamaron Ambazonia.
Anglophone separatists declared an independent republic they called Ambazonia.
Desde entonces, miles de personas murieron y más de medio millón tuvieron que abandonar sus casas.
Since then, thousands of people have died and more than half a million had to leave their homes.
And this is the country where parliament just voted 93 percent in favor of a constitutional change.
So when people outside Africa look at that number and think, well, there must be broad consensus, the context is rather different.
A ver, en Camerún, el partido de Biya, el RDPC, controla el parlamento desde hace décadas.
Look, in Cameroon, Biya's party, the CPDM, has controlled parliament for decades.
No es un parlamento libre en el sentido que nosotros entendemos.
It is not a free parliament in the sense we understand.
Es un instrumento del ejecutivo.
It is an instrument of the executive.
So let's talk about the mechanics of what they actually passed.
The vice president, under this amendment, would be appointed directly by the president.
Not elected separately.
And if the president dies or becomes incapacitated, the VP takes over for the remainder of the term.
Bueno, eso es crucial.
That is crucial.
Porque antes, si el presidente moría, el presidente del Senado tomaba el poder.
Because before, if the president died, the president of the Senate would take power.
Ahora, Biya puede elegir a su sucesor directamente, sin elecciones, sin debate público.
Now, Biya can choose his successor directly, without elections, without public debate.
Which is, look, that's a remarkable concentration of power.
A 93-year-old man, who is reported to spend considerable time in Switzerland, by the way, not even in his own capital, gets to personally hand-pick who runs Cameroon after him.
Sí, Biya pasa mucho tiempo en Ginebra.
Yes, Biya spends a lot of time in Geneva.
Es famoso por eso.
He is famous for that.
Hay periodistas cameruneses que monitorean cuántos días al año está en el país.
There are Cameroonian journalists who track how many days a year he is actually in the country.
A veces son muy pocos.
Sometimes it is very few.
The extraordinary thing is that this pattern, an aging African leader governing partly in absentia while his circle manages things back home, is not unique to Cameroon.
You can draw a line from there to Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, to Teodoro Obiang in Equatorial Guinea.
It's almost a governance style.
Es que no es solo África.
It is not just Africa.
Mira la historia de Europa.
Look at European history.
Mira Francisco Franco en España.
Look at Francisco Franco in Spain.
Tenía casi ochenta años cuando murió en el poder.
He was almost eighty years old when he died in power.
El problema no es el continente.
The problem is not the continent.
Es el sistema que permite que un hombre controle todo durante décadas.
It is the system that allows one man to control everything for decades.
No, you're absolutely right about that.
And I take the point.
The paternalistic framing of, oh, this is what Africa does, is lazy and wrong.
These are political structures, and political structures can be analyzed without geography being the explanation.
La verdad es que muchos de estos sistemas tienen raíces en el colonialismo.
The truth is that many of these systems have roots in colonialism.
Francia dejó en sus antiguas colonias instituciones diseñadas para controlar, no para representar.
France left in its former colonies institutions designed to control, not to represent.
Y cuando los nuevos líderes africanos tomaron el control, usaron esas mismas instituciones.
And when the new African leaders took control, they used those same institutions.
Right, so there's a direct inheritance problem.
The colonial state was not a democratic state.
It was an extractive state.
And then independence comes, and the new government inherits the extractive machinery.
It's a brutal irony.
Mira, Camerún tiene petróleo, cacao, madera, minerales.
Look, Cameroon has oil, cocoa, timber, minerals.
Tiene recursos naturales importantes.
It has important natural resources.
Pero es uno de los países más pobres del mundo.
But it is one of the poorest countries in the world.
El cuarenta por ciento de la población vive en la pobreza.
Forty percent of the population lives in poverty.
Eso no es un accidente.
That is not an accident.
And this is the political economy question underneath the constitutional story.
Because who controls the succession controls the oil revenues, the contracts, the entire patronage network that keeps the system running.
This amendment is not about governance.
It's about money.
Exactamente.
Exactly.
Y también es sobre seguridad personal.
And it is also about personal security.
Los hombres cercanos a Biya tienen miedo.
The men close to Biya are afraid.
Si hay un cambio de poder descontrolado, pueden perder todo.
If there is an uncontrolled transfer of power, they could lose everything.
Esta reforma les da más tiempo para prepararse.
This reform gives them more time to prepare.
Here's what gets me about the timing, though.
This is happening while Africa is going through a remarkable wave of coups, right?
Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, Gabon next door to Cameroon.
All military takeovers in the last few years.
Is Biya watching that and thinking, I need to lock this down?
Bueno, Gabón es el ejemplo perfecto.
Gabon is the perfect example.
En 2023, el ejército de Gabón hizo un golpe de estado contra Ali Bongo, el hijo del presidente anterior.
In 2023, the Gabonese military staged a coup against Ali Bongo, the son of the previous president.
Y muchos cameruneses vieron eso y pensaron: ¿puede pasar aquí?
And many Cameroonians saw that and thought: can this happen here?
And Gabon is practically next door.
I mean, these countries share a border.
So the message from Libreville to Yaoundé was very clear: a dynastic succession, even a managed one, can still be overthrown.
Which makes what Biya is doing now even more interesting, because he's not installing a family member.
He's creating a mechanism.
A ver, hay rumores desde hace años sobre quién puede ser el sucesor.
There have been rumors for years about who the successor might be.
Algunos hablan del ministro de defensa, Joseph Dion Ngute.
Some talk about the defense minister, Joseph Dion Ngute.
Otros mencionan al secretario general de la presidencia.
Others mention the secretary general of the presidency.
Nadie sabe con certeza.
Nobody knows for certain.
And the opacity is itself a form of control, isn't it.
If everyone is guessing, nobody can organize against the chosen one before he's revealed.
It's Kremlinology, basically.
The African version of watching who stands where at the parade.
Es que eso es muy inteligente políticamente.
That is very intelligent politically.
Biya aprendió esa táctica de sus predecesores.
Biya learned that tactic from his predecessors.
Ahidjo, el primer presidente, también mantuvo a sus rivales divididos y confundidos durante años.
Ahidjo, the first president, also kept his rivals divided and confused for years.
Es una tradición del poder en Camerún.
It is a tradition of power in Cameroon.
Let's talk about what the opposition said.
Because there was pushback, even if it didn't show up in the vote count.
Human rights groups, some civil society organizations, the Anglophone regions in particular have been deeply critical.
What's the reaction from inside Cameroon?
La oposición dijo que esta reforma es antidemocrática.
The opposition said this reform is antidemocratic.
Que el pueblo camerunés no tuvo voz.
That the Cameroonian people had no voice.
Que Biya creó una monarquía sin corona.
That Biya created a monarchy without a crown.
Esas fueron las palabras de algunos activistas: una monarquía sin corona.
Those were the words of some activists: a monarchy without a crown.
A monarchy without a crown.
That's a phrase that'll stick with you.
And look, the Anglophone community specifically, they're already in a civil conflict with the state.
For them, this is not an abstract constitutional debate.
This is about whether anyone who comes after Biya will finally address what they've been fighting about for nearly a decade.
Mira, el problema anglófono no desapareció.
Look, the Anglophone problem did not disappear.
Hay zonas del noroeste y suroeste del país donde el ejército y los separatistas todavía se enfrentan.
There are areas in the northwest and southwest of the country where the army and separatists still clash.
Los niños no pueden ir a la escuela en muchos pueblos.
Children cannot go to school in many villages.
Es una crisis humanitaria real.
It is a real humanitarian crisis.
And the international community has been remarkably quiet about it.
Partly because Cameroon doesn't have the geopolitical weight of a Ukraine or a Gaza.
Partly because France has interests there and France tends to protect its backyard.
But the silence is striking.
La verdad es que Francia tiene una base militar en Camerún.
The truth is that France has a military base in Cameroon.
Tiene contratos de petróleo.
It has oil contracts.
Tiene intereses comerciales muy importantes.
It has very important commercial interests.
No es neutral.
It is not neutral.
Nunca fue neutral.
It was never neutral.
So here's the big implication question.
Let's say Biya names a vice president in the next few months.
What does that person actually inherit?
Because the structural problems, the Anglophone conflict, the poverty, the corruption, the dependence on oil revenues that are eventually going to run out, none of that gets solved by a constitutional amendment.
Es que eso es exactamente el problema de las transiciones de poder en este tipo de régimen.
That is exactly the problem with power transitions in this type of regime.
El sucesor hereda el sistema, con todos sus problemas.
The successor inherits the system, with all its problems.
Y si intenta cambiar demasiado, las personas que lo pusieron en el poder lo van a abandonar.
And if he tries to change too much, the people who put him in power will abandon him.
It's a trap.
The amendment is designed to produce continuity, but continuity is exactly what Cameroon's problems don't need.
The country needs a negotiated solution in the Anglophone regions, it needs investment in institutions, it needs, frankly, a real election at some point.
None of that is on the table.
Bueno, hay algo que me parece importante decir.
There is something important to say.
En Camerún hay gente muy inteligente, periodistas, académicos, activistas, que trabajan todos los días para cambiar el país.
In Cameroon there are very intelligent people, journalists, academics, activists, who work every day to change the country.
Esta historia no es solo sobre Biya.
This story is not just about Biya.
Es también sobre ellos.
It is also about them.
That's a fair and necessary point.
And some of those journalists have paid a serious price.
Cameroon has one of the worst records for press freedom in sub-Saharan Africa.
The Committee to Protect Journalists has documented multiple cases of reporters imprisoned for covering the Anglophone conflict.
This is personal territory for me.
A ver, cuando un gobierno controla la información sobre una guerra civil dentro de su propio país, eso es muy revelador.
When a government controls information about a civil war inside its own country, that is very revealing.
No quieren que el mundo sepa lo que pasa en el noroeste y el suroeste.
They do not want the world to know what is happening in the northwest and southwest.
Eso dice todo.
That says everything.
So where does this end up, do you think?
If Biya names a vice president, if there's a managed transition, does Cameroon stabilize, does it fragment further, or does it just...
continue in this suspended state it's been in for years?
La verdad es que no lo sé.
The truth is I don't know.
Y creo que nadie lo sabe, ni siquiera las personas dentro del sistema.
And I think nobody knows, not even the people inside the system.
Camerún lleva años en ese estado suspendido que describes.
Cameroon has been in that suspended state you describe for years.
Un país con mucho potencial y muchos problemas sin resolver.
A country with a lot of potential and many unresolved problems.
The thing is, that suspended state is itself a political choice.
Instability can be managed in ways that benefit the people at the top.
Biya has been doing it for 44 years.
Whoever comes next will have to decide whether to keep managing the crisis or actually try to end it.
And that is a genuinely open question.
Mira, lo que me quedo de esta historia es lo siguiente: un hombre de noventa y tres años, que gobernó durante cuarenta y cuatro años, todavía tiene suficiente poder para cambiar la constitución de su país.
What I take from this story is this: a ninety-three-year-old man, who has governed for forty-four years, still has enough power to change the constitution of his country.
Eso te dice todo sobre la naturaleza de ese poder.
That tells you everything about the nature of that power.
And maybe that's the right note to end on.
Not with an answer, but with that image.
A parliament voting 93 percent in favor of a reform that hands the succession to a man who has already been in power longer than most of his citizens have been alive.
Cameroon is worth watching.
Carefully.