Welcome Mat, Rolled Up

Mezclar problemas muy distintos bajo el mismo paraguas de 'criminalidad extranjera' le permite al gobierno tailandés presentar una respuesta visible sin atacar los problemas más profundos, que son infinitamente más complicados de resolver.

Lumping very different problems under the same umbrella of 'foreign criminality' allows the Thai government to present a visible response without attacking the deeper problems, which are infinitely more complicated to resolve.

But there's also a third category that doesn't get talked about much, which is the long-term stayer.

The digital nomad, the retiree living on a pension, the person who's been doing successive thirty-day visa runs for a decade.

Ese es un fenómeno que ha crecido de manera exponencial desde la pandemia, y que ha generado tensiones en muchos países, no solo en Tailandia.

That's a phenomenon that has grown exponentially since the pandemic, and it has generated tensions in many countries, not just Thailand.

Hay gente que vive en Bangkok o en Chiang Mai durante meses o incluso años, aprovechando el bajo coste de vida y la facilidad de acceso, pero que no contribuye fiscalmente al país de la misma manera que un residente oficial.

There are people who live in Bangkok or Chiang Mai for months or even years, taking advantage of the low cost of living and ease of access, but who don't contribute fiscally to the country in the same way an official resident would.

I know people who've done exactly that.

And the honest version of what they're doing is: they've found a workaround.

The visa-free policy was designed for visitors, and they've turned it into a residential strategy.

Exacto.

Exactly.

Y lo curioso es que Tailandia intentó resolver eso de otra manera, creando visados especiales para nómadas digitales, el llamado LTR visa, el visado de larga estancia, con el que querían atraer a trabajadores remotos de alto ingreso.

And the curious thing is that Thailand tried to solve that a different way, by creating special visas for digital nomads, the so-called LTR visa, the long-term residence visa, with which they wanted to attract high-income remote workers.

La idea era canalizarlos dentro de un marco legal.

The idea was to channel them within a legal framework.

Pero ese programa no ha tenido todo el éxito que esperaban.

But that program hasn't had all the success they hoped for.

Why not?

Because from the outside, that seems like a reasonable solution.

Porque requiere documentación, demostración de ingresos, burocracia.

Because it requires documentation, proof of income, bureaucracy.

Y hay muchas personas que simplemente prefieren la comodidad del sistema existente, aunque sea más precario.

And many people simply prefer the convenience of the existing system, even if it's more precarious.

El ser humano tiende a tomar el camino de menor resistencia, y durante años el camino de menor resistencia en Tailandia ha sido entrar sin visado, salir antes de que expire el plazo, y volver a entrar.

People tend to take the path of least resistance, and for years the path of least resistance in Thailand has been to enter without a visa, leave before the deadline, and re-enter.

So what you're describing is a system that was designed for one purpose being systematically exploited for another, and Thailand is now trying to close that gap.

Sí, pero lo que me parece más interesante desde una perspectiva más amplia es que esto no es exclusivamente tailandés.

Yes, but what I find most interesting from a broader perspective is that this isn't exclusively Thai.

Es un síntoma de algo que está ocurriendo en todo el mundo.

It's a symptom of something happening all over the world.

España lo está viviendo también, aunque de forma diferente.

Spain is experiencing it too, though in a different form.

The anti-tourism protests.

Barcelona, the Canary Islands.

People literally carrying signs that say "tourists go home."

Que para alguien que viene de un país que ha construido buena parte de su economía sobre el turismo, es una imagen bastante perturbadora de ver.

Which, for someone from a country that has built a good part of its economy on tourism, is a pretty unsettling image to see.

Pero refleja algo real: cuando el turismo alcanza cierta densidad, deja de ser una industria y se convierte en una presión sobre la vida cotidiana de los que viven allí.

But it reflects something real: when tourism reaches a certain density, it stops being an industry and becomes a pressure on the daily lives of those who live there.

Sobre el precio de los alquileres, sobre los servicios públicos, sobre la identidad misma del lugar.

On rent prices, on public services, on the very identity of the place.

And the Thailand story maps onto that same tension, just with a different emphasis.

In Spain it's about housing costs and cultural erosion.

In Thailand it's framed around crime, but underneath that framing is the same question: at what point does open access stop serving the people who actually live here?

Y hay que decir que en el caso de Tailandia, esa pregunta tiene una dimensión adicional que en España quizás no es tan acuciante, que es la dimensión de la soberanía cultural.

And it must be said that in Thailand's case, that question has an additional dimension that in Spain is perhaps not as pressing, which is the dimension of cultural sovereignty.

Tailandia es budista, tiene una monarquía sagrada para muchos de sus ciudadanos, una serie de normas sociales que el turismo masivo ha ido erosionando de maneras que a veces resultan bastante chocantes para los tailandeses.

Thailand is Buddhist, it has a monarchy considered sacred by many of its citizens, a set of social norms that mass tourism has been eroding in ways that are sometimes quite jarring for Thais.

The temple dress code arguments.

Tourists in bikinis at Wat Pho.

I've seen the photos and I understand why it rankles.

Sí, pero lo que me resulta llamativo es la respuesta elegida.

Yes, but what strikes me is the chosen response.

Reducir los plazos de estancia es una medida bastante blunt, si me permites el anglicismo.

Reducing stay lengths is a fairly blunt measure, if you'll allow me the anglicism.

Es un instrumento grueso para un problema que tiene muchas capas.

It's a crude instrument for a problem with many layers.

No distingue entre el turista que falta el respeto en un templo, el nómada digital que evade impuestos y la red criminal que utiliza el visado turístico como tapadera.

It doesn't distinguish between the tourist who disrespects a temple, the digital nomad evading taxes, and the criminal network using a tourist visa as cover.

Unless the goal isn't actually to solve those problems.

Unless the goal is to signal.

To say: we are not infinitely accommodating.

There are limits.

And the precise limits can be worked out later.

Eso es políticamente honesto, y probablemente cierto.

That's politically honest, and probably true.

Los gobiernos hacen esto constantemente: anuncian una medida cuyo efecto real es la señal que envían, no el cambio que producen.

Governments do this constantly: they announce a measure whose real effect is the signal it sends, not the change it produces.

Pero el problema es que las señales también tienen consecuencias económicas.

But the problem is that signals also have economic consequences.

Si los tours operadores europeos o americanos ven que Tailandia está restringiendo el acceso, algunos redirigen sus paquetes a Vietnam, a Camboya, a Indonesia.

If European or American tour operators see Thailand restricting access, some will redirect their packages to Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia.

Which are competitors who have spent the last decade investing heavily in exactly the infrastructure Thailand built in the eighties.

Correcto.

Correct.

Y eso crea una especie de dilema del prisionero entre países en desarrollo que dependen del turismo.

And that creates a kind of prisoner's dilemma among developing countries that depend on tourism.

Si uno endurece sus condiciones, los turistas van a otro lado.

If one tightens its conditions, tourists go elsewhere.

Así que hay una presión constante hacia la apertura, hacia la complacencia, que es muy difícil de resistir cuando tu economía depende de ello.

So there's a constant pressure toward openness, toward accommodation, that's very hard to resist when your economy depends on it.

Tailandia está intentando romper ese ciclo, y no sé si lo conseguirá.

Thailand is trying to break that cycle, and I don't know if it will succeed.

There's also the geopolitical dimension here, which is worth mentioning.

Because the countries most affected by a reduction in visa-free stays aren't random.

They're likely to be countries whose nationals have been most visible in Thai crime statistics, and that list has a China-shaped hole in the middle of it.

Es un punto delicado, y los tailandeses lo manejarán con mucho cuidado, porque China sigue siendo su mayor fuente de turistas y su vecino más poderoso.

It's a sensitive point, and Thais will handle it very carefully, because China remains their largest source of tourists and their most powerful neighbor.

Pero los escándalos relacionados con los 'scam compounds', con las redes de estafa operadas desde territorio tailandés, han involucrado de manera prominente a redes criminales con conexiones chinas, y eso ha generado una presión pública interna que el gobierno no puede ignorar completamente.

But the scandals related to 'scam compounds', to fraud networks operating from Thai territory, have prominently involved criminal networks with Chinese connections, and that has generated internal public pressure the government cannot completely ignore.

I covered the region in the mid-2000s, and even then there was this undercurrent of resentment about the terms of the relationship with China.

The economic dependence, the sense that Thai businesses were being undercut, that Thai land was being bought up.

The tourism and crime question has amplified all of that.

Y todo esto se produce en un momento en que el propio concepto de turismo está siendo cuestionado a nivel global.

And all of this is happening at a moment when the very concept of tourism is being questioned globally.

Hay un debate serio sobre si el turismo masivo, tal como lo hemos conocido en las últimas tres décadas, es sostenible, no solo medioambientalmente, sino socialmente.

There's a serious debate about whether mass tourism, as we have known it in the last three decades, is sustainable, not just environmentally, but socially.

Y creo que lo que está haciendo Tailandia es, a su manera, participar en ese debate.

And I think what Thailand is doing is, in its own way, participating in that debate.

The implication being that the post-WWII architecture of open movement, of visa-free agreements built on the assumption of good faith, is starting to buckle under the weight of its own success.

Bien dicho.

Well put.

Y lo más paradójico es que los países que más se beneficiaron de esa apertura, los que más la impulsaron, son también los que más están sufriendo sus consecuencias.

And the most paradoxical thing is that the countries that benefited most from that openness, the ones that pushed it hardest, are also the ones suffering most from its consequences.

Tailandia abrió sus puertas y el mundo entró.

Thailand opened its doors and the world walked in.

Ahora se pregunta si acaso abrió demasiado, demasiado rápido, a demasiados.

Now it's asking whether it opened them too wide, too fast, for too many.

And the world's travelers, frankly, are going to feel that door get a little heavier to push.

Oye, cambiando un poco el tema, me ha llamado la atención algo que dijiste antes, cuando usaste el verbo 'buckling'.

Hey, shifting slightly, something caught my attention earlier, when you used the verb 'buckling'.

Lo tradujiste internamente como 'ceder', que es correcto, pero en español también habríamos podido decir que el sistema 'se está resquebrajando', o que 'acusa el desgaste'.

You translated it internally as 'ceder', which is correct, but in Spanish we could also have said the system is 'resquebrajándose', or that it 'acusa el desgaste'.

Son matices distintos que revelan cosas distintas sobre el tipo de ruptura que imaginamos.

They're different shades that reveal different things about the type of collapse we're imagining.

Hold on, 'resquebrajando.' I've never tried to say that word out loud.

Break that down for me.

Viene de 'resquebrajar', que significa agrietarse, romperse en pequeñas fisuras.

It comes from 'resquebrajar', meaning to crack, to break into small fissures.

No es una ruptura total, es una cosa que se va cuarteando poco a poco, como la cerámica antigua cuando empieza a secarse demasiado.

It's not a total rupture, it's something cracking little by little, like ancient pottery when it starts to dry out too much.

'Ceder' es más suave, casi voluntario, como cuando uno cede el paso.

'Ceder' is softer, almost voluntary, like yielding the right of way.

'Resquebrajarse' implica que algo que parecía sólido está perdiendo su integridad desde dentro.

'Resquebrajarse' implies that something that seemed solid is losing its integrity from within.

That's actually a more precise description of what's happening to these visa frameworks than anything I said.

They're not collapsing.

They're cracking from the inside, which is a different kind of problem entirely.

Exactamente.

Exactly.

Y fíjate que en inglés también tienes esa distinción, entre 'crumbling', que es desmoronarse de manera más dramática, y 'cracking', que es más sutil.

And notice that in English you have that distinction too, between 'crumbling', which is collapsing more dramatically, and 'cracking', which is more subtle.

Los idiomas suelen tener más recursos para describir la destrucción gradual que la repentina.

Languages tend to have more resources for describing gradual destruction than sudden destruction.

Dice algo sobre la naturaleza humana, supongo.

Says something about human nature, I suppose.

Either that or we spend more time watching things fall apart slowly than we'd like to admit.

Thanks for that, Octavio.

Resquebrajando.

I'm going to deploy that at dinner tonight and see what happens.

Con lo que ya tienes en tu historial con el español, Fletcher, yo de ti lo pensaría dos veces antes de intentar 'resquebrajar' en una sobremesa.

With your track record in Spanish, Fletcher, I'd think twice before attempting 'resquebrajar' at the dinner table.

Podría salir de cualquier manera.

It could come out any number of ways.