A Billion People Have Nowhere to Go

Where do they go?

Because the borders around Bangladesh are not exactly porous, and India, which is the obvious destination, has spent years building a fence along that border and pushing people back.

Y esa valla ya ha causado muertes.

And that fence has already caused deaths.

Hay documentación de personas electrocutadas intentando cruzar.

There is documentation of people electrocuted trying to cross.

Lo que antes era migración económica entre países vecinos con una historia compartida se está convirtiendo, muy despacio, en algo que los gobiernos locales ya llaman crisis de seguridad.

What was once economic migration between neighboring countries with a shared history is very slowly becoming something that local governments are already calling a security crisis.

El lenguaje cambia antes que las leyes.

The language changes before the laws do.

The language changes before the laws do.

That's worth holding onto for a minute.

Because historically, when language shifts around a humanitarian crisis, it usually shifts in the direction of restriction, not welcome.

You start calling people an "influx" or a "wave" and before long you're building walls.

Completamente.

Completely.

Y lo que me parece más injusto, y aquí voy a ser muy directo, es la geografía de la responsabilidad.

And what strikes me as most unjust, and here I will be very direct, is the geography of responsibility.

Los países que menos han contribuido a las emisiones históricas de carbono son los que más van a sufrir el desplazamiento climático.

The countries that have contributed least to historical carbon emissions are the ones that will suffer the most from climate displacement.

El Sahel africano aporta menos del cuatro por ciento de las emisiones globales.

The African Sahel contributes less than four percent of global emissions.

El Pacífico insular, una fracción de un porcentaje.

The Pacific islands, a fraction of a percent.

Y, sin embargo, son los que primero pierden sus tierras.

And yet they are the first to lose their land.

I don't disagree with that framing.

Though I'd push back slightly on one thing: the global North-South binary is getting messier.

China is now the largest annual emitter.

The Gulf states pump extraordinary amounts of carbon while also being acutely threatened by heat.

This isn't a clean story of rich white countries destroying the planet for brown ones.

No, tienes razón en que el mapa es más complejo ahora.

No, you are right that the map is more complex now.

Pero la responsabilidad histórica sí tiene una geografía bastante clara.

But historical responsibility does have a fairly clear geography.

El noventa por ciento de las emisiones acumuladas desde la Revolución Industrial vienen del mundo industrializado occidental.

Ninety percent of cumulative emissions since the Industrial Revolution come from the Western industrialized world.

Eso no desaparece porque China haya acelerado en los últimos treinta años.

That does not disappear because China has accelerated in the last thirty years.

La deuda climática es real aunque sea incómoda de medir.

The climate debt is real even if it is uncomfortable to measure.

Fair.

Let's talk about the Pacific, because I think that's where the philosophical questions get sharpest.

Places like Tuvalu or Kiribati, islands with maybe eleven, fifteen thousand people.

They are not sinking metaphorically.

They are physically disappearing.

The highest point in Tuvalu is four meters above sea level.

Y lo que está haciendo Tuvalu es extraordinario desde el punto de vista legal y político: está negociando su propia desaparición con dignidad.

And what Tuvalu is doing is extraordinary from a legal and political point of view: it is negotiating its own disappearance with dignity.

Firmaron un acuerdo con Nueva Zelanda para que sus ciudadanos puedan emigrar de manera permanente, y lo más notable es que el acuerdo incluye una cláusula que reconoce la continuación de la condición de Estado de Tuvalu aunque el territorio físico quede sumergido.

They signed an agreement with New Zealand so that their citizens can emigrate permanently, and what is most remarkable is that the agreement includes a clause recognizing the continuation of Tuvalu's statehood even if the physical territory becomes submerged.

Un Estado sin tierra.

A state without land.

Nunca ha existido eso en el derecho internacional.

That has never existed in international law.

A state without land.

I had not registered that.

So the idea is that Tuvalu continues to exist as a legal entity, with a seat at the UN, with exclusive economic zones over the surrounding ocean, even if there's nowhere to stand?

Eso es exactamente lo que están intentando.

That is exactly what they are trying to do.

Y tiene implicaciones enormes, porque si Tuvalu desaparece como Estado, China podría reclamar soberanía sobre esas aguas.

And it has enormous implications, because if Tuvalu disappears as a state, China could claim sovereignty over those waters.

Los océanos del Pacífico están llenos de recursos, de rutas comerciales, de posiciones estratégicas.

The Pacific oceans are full of resources, trade routes, strategic positions.

La extinción climática de un país pequeño no es solo una tragedia humana.

The climate extinction of a small country is not just a human tragedy.

Es un movimiento geopolítico que otros están esperando para aprovechar.

It is a geopolitical move that others are waiting to exploit.

The Pacific as a chessboard.

I wrote about that dynamic back in 2009, the China-Taiwan competition for influence in Micronesia, small island nations essentially being courted with development money.

Climate just adds another layer of leverage to an already complicated game.

Exacto, y es algo que los analistas occidentales subestiman constantemente.

Exactly, and it is something that Western analysts constantly underestimate.

Tendemos a ver la migración climática como un problema humanitario, como una cuestión de campamentos de refugiados y corredores de ayuda.

We tend to see climate migration as a humanitarian problem, as a matter of refugee camps and aid corridors.

Pero es también un reordenamiento del poder.

But it is also a reordering of power.

Cuando millones de personas se mueven, las economías cambian, las alianzas se reconfiguran y los votos en la Asamblea General de la ONU se redistribuyen.

When millions of people move, economies change, alliances reconfigure, and votes in the UN General Assembly redistribute.

Let's bring this closer to home.

Spain, Mediterranean, Europe.

Because Europe is both a destination and a geography that's going to be seriously disrupted by climate change in its own right.

The Iberian Peninsula is projected to be one of the most affected regions in Europe by desertification.

Sí, y eso es algo que en España se habla demasiado poco, la verdad.

Yes, and that is something that is talked about too little in Spain, frankly.

Tenemos el debate de la inmigración desde el norte de África como si fuera un fenómeno separado del cambio climático, cuando en realidad están profundamente conectados.

We have the debate about immigration from North Africa as if it were a phenomenon separate from climate change, when in reality they are deeply connected.

El Sahel se está expandiendo hacia el norte.

The Sahel is expanding northward.

Hay regiones de Mali, Níger y Senegal donde la agricultura de subsistencia que sostenía a familias durante generaciones ya no es viable.

There are regions of Mali, Niger, and Senegal where subsistence farming that sustained families for generations is no longer viable.

Y la gente no se va porque quiera.

And people do not leave because they want to.

Se va porque la tierra no da más.

They leave because the land gives no more.

And Spain receives those people on its southern coast and the Canary Islands, which had a genuine crisis in 2023 with arrivals from West Africa.

But simultaneously, Murcia and Andalusia are facing their own water stress problems.

Parts of southern Spain could face conditions in thirty years that look more like Morocco does today.

Y eso me parece una ironía que debería hacernos reflexionar profundamente.

And that strikes me as an irony that should make us reflect deeply.

Porque España tiene una memoria histórica de emigración.

Because Spain has a historical memory of emigration.

Mis abuelos se fueron a Alemania en los años sesenta porque no había trabajo.

My grandparents went to Germany in the sixties because there was no work.

No era el clima, era la economía, pero la sensación de dejar tu tierra sin saber si vas a volver es la misma.

It was not the climate, it was the economy, but the feeling of leaving your land not knowing if you will return is the same.

Ese tejido emocional no debería perderse cuando miramos las imágenes de las pateras llegando a las costas.

That emotional fabric should not be lost when we look at the images of small boats arriving on the coasts.

That's a real point.

America has a version of that too, though we tend to forget it conveniently.

The Dust Bowl in the 1930s displaced somewhere between three and four hundred thousand people from Oklahoma and Texas.

Internal migration, yes, but the dynamics were almost identical: land failure, desperation, and the people who received them in California were not exactly welcoming.

Los llamaban 'Okies', con desprecio.

They called them 'Okies,' with contempt.

Steinbeck lo inmortalizó.

Steinbeck immortalized it.

Y el paralelismo es válido porque demuestra que incluso dentro de un mismo país, con los mismos derechos civiles, los desplazados climáticos encuentran hostilidad.

And the parallel is valid because it shows that even within the same country, with the same civil rights, climate displaced people find hostility.

Imagina, entonces, lo que ocurre cuando cruzas fronteras internacionales sin pasaporte y sin estatus legal.

Imagine, then, what happens when you cross international borders without a passport and without legal status.

So where does "managed retreat" fit into all this?

Because I've been reading about that concept, the idea that instead of waiting for disaster, governments proactively relocate entire communities.

It sounds rational on paper.

Suena racional hasta que intentas aplicarlo.

It sounds rational until you try to apply it.

Fiji ha trasladado ya más de cuarenta aldeas enteras tierra adentro.

Fiji has already relocated more than forty entire villages inland.

El gobierno de Fiyi tiene un protocolo formal para esto, con consultas comunitarias y compensaciones.

The Fijian government has a formal protocol for this, with community consultations and compensation.

Y aun así, hay familias que se niegan a irse porque sus antepasados están enterrados en esa tierra, porque su identidad está unida a ese lugar de una forma que ningún funcionario del gobierno puede medir en un formulario.

And even so, there are families that refuse to leave because their ancestors are buried in that land, because their identity is tied to that place in a way that no government official can measure on a form.

That gap between what's administratively solvable and what's humanly real is something I ran into constantly as a correspondent.

You can move a population on a spreadsheet.

You cannot move a population's sense of home.

Y hay algo más que me preocupa del concepto de 'repliegue gestionado': ¿quién lo gestiona y con qué recursos?

And there is something else about the concept of 'managed retreat' that worries me: who manages it and with what resources?

Porque en los países ricos, como Holanda, que lleva siglos conviviendo con el agua, hay ingeniería, hay dinero y hay instituciones que pueden adaptarse.

Because in rich countries, like the Netherlands, which has been living with water for centuries, there is engineering, there is money, and there are institutions that can adapt.

Pero en Mozambique, en Myanmar, en Guatemala, la capacidad de adaptación es mínima.

But in Mozambique, in Myanmar, in Guatemala, the adaptive capacity is minimal.

La brecha no es solo de emisiones;

The gap is not only in emissions;

es de resiliencia.

it is in resilience.

The Loss and Damage fund.

That came out of COP27 in 2022, what, almost as a miracle after years of the global North refusing to even acknowledge the concept.

Rich countries would compensate vulnerable ones for climate harms they couldn't prevent.

How much has actually been delivered?

Poquísimo, y eso no es una sorpresa para nadie que haya seguido la diplomacia climática.

Very little, and that is no surprise to anyone who has followed climate diplomacy.

En la COP28 en Dubái se anunciaron compromisos que en total no llegan ni al uno por ciento de lo que los economistas estiman que se necesita.

At COP28 in Dubai, commitments were announced that in total do not even reach one percent of what economists estimate is needed.

La diferencia entre lo prometido y lo necesario se mide en cientos de miles de millones de dólares.

The difference between what is promised and what is needed is measured in hundreds of billions of dollars.

Los acuerdos climáticos tienen una tendencia histórica a ser más espectaculares en su anuncio que en su ejecución.

Climate agreements have a historical tendency to be more spectacular in their announcement than in their execution.

I covered enough summits to know that the gap between the communiqué and the reality can be so wide you could fit a continent in it.

But I want to be careful not to tip into pure cynicism here, because there are things actually happening.

The Global Compact on Migration in 2018, imperfect as it was, at least acknowledged climate as a driver for the first time.

Reconocerlo no es suficiente cuando el horizonte de tiempo es el que es.

Acknowledging it is not enough when the time horizon is what it is.

Los modelos climáticos más recientes del IPCC muestran que incluso si se cumplen todos los compromisos actuales, cosa que no ocurrirá, el mundo se calienta 2,4 grados centígrados para finales de siglo.

The most recent IPCC climate models show that even if all current commitments are fulfilled, which will not happen, the world warms 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

A ese nivel de calentamiento, los flujos migratorios que estamos viendo hoy son una premonición, no una crisis.

At that level of warming, the migration flows we are seeing today are a premonition, not a crisis.

La crisis viene después.

The crisis comes later.

Let me ask you something that I've genuinely been wrestling with.

The cities most at risk in the next fifty years, Miami, Mumbai, Shanghai, Alexandria, these are not poor cities.

These are global centers of commerce and culture with enormous resources.

Does the calculus change when it's not just subsistence farmers in the Sahel but forty million people in the greater Miami metro?

Cambia políticamente.

It changes politically.

Cuando el riesgo llega a los códigos postales ricos, los gobiernos se mueven con una velocidad diferente.

When the risk reaches wealthy zip codes, governments move at a different speed.

Ya lo estamos viendo: Florida gasta miles de millones en elevación de carreteras, en muros de mareas, en sistemas de alcantarillado.

We are already seeing it: Florida spends billions on road elevation, on tidal walls, on sewer systems.

Pero incluso eso tiene un límite, porque hay partes de Florida del Sur donde los expertos dicen que la ingeniería simplemente no puede ganar.

But even that has a limit, because there are parts of South Florida where experts say engineering simply cannot win.

La pregunta no es si se van a tener que ir, sino cuándo.

The question is not whether they will have to leave, but when.

There's a paper I came across from the University of Miami, researchers there estimated that property values in low-lying coastal areas are already declining relative to higher ground, even in neighborhoods that haven't flooded yet.

The market is pricing in risk faster than the politics are.

Which is maybe the most honest signal we have.

Eso es fascinante y aterrador al mismo tiempo.

That is fascinating and terrifying at the same time.

Porque significa que quienes tienen acceso a esa información financiera sofisticada, los bancos, los fondos de inversión, las aseguradoras, ya se están posicionando para salir antes de que llegue el desastre.

Because it means that those with access to that sophisticated financial information, the banks, the investment funds, the insurers, are already positioning themselves to get out before the disaster arrives.

Y los que no tienen ese acceso, los propietarios de clase media o baja que compraron en esas zonas porque era lo que podían permitirse, se quedarán con activos devaluados en un suelo inundable.

And those who do not have that access, the middle- and lower-class homeowners who bought in those areas because it was what they could afford, will be left with devalued assets on floodable ground.

Climate migration as a class issue.

It's that all the way down, isn't it.

The people who can leave, leave.

The people who can't, stay and absorb the damage.

Whether you're talking about a smallholder in Burkina Faso or a schoolteacher in Homestead, Florida.

Y eso nos lleva de vuelta al principio, a la pregunta de la responsabilidad colectiva.

And that brings us back to the beginning, to the question of collective responsibility.

Porque si es un problema de clase tanto como de clima, entonces las soluciones también tienen que ser redistributivas.

Because if it is a class problem as much as a climate problem, then the solutions also have to be redistributive.

No se trata solo de reducir emisiones.

It is not just about reducing emissions.

Se trata de reconstruir los sistemas que determinan quién puede adaptarse y quién no.

It is about rebuilding the systems that determine who can adapt and who cannot.

Eso es mucho más difícil de vender políticamente que poner paneles solares en los tejados.

That is much harder to sell politically than putting solar panels on rooftops.

Can I ask you something about the Spanish you used earlier, because it stopped me mid-listen and I want to get it right.

You said "a merced de" when you were talking about communities that are at the mercy of forces they can't control.

I've been trying to work out when to use that versus just saying something like "dependiente de." They feel different but I can't quite pin down why.

Buena observación, la diferencia es importante.

Good observation, the difference is important.

'Dependiente de' es neutro, describe una relación de necesidad.

'Dependiente de' is neutral, it describes a relationship of need.

Puedo decir que soy dependiente del café por la mañana.

I can say I am dependent on coffee in the morning.

'A merced de' implica vulnerabilidad e impotencia frente a algo que tiene poder sobre ti y que no te desea ningún bien, o simplemente no te considera.

'A merced de' implies vulnerability and powerlessness before something that has power over you and does not wish you well, or simply does not consider you at all.

'Estar a merced del mar' evoca algo amenazante, algo que te puede destruir.

'To be at the mercy of the sea' evokes something threatening, something that can destroy you.

Es una expresión que viene del latín 'merces', que originalmente significaba recompensa, precio.

It is an expression that comes from the Latin 'merces,' which originally meant reward, price.

Pedir merced era pedir clemencia a alguien que podía matarte.

To ask for mercy was to ask for clemency from someone who could kill you.

So the whole history of power and powerlessness is baked into the phrase.

That's exactly the right word for climate migration then, communities literally at the mercy of forces they did not create and cannot negotiate with.

I'm going to try to use that.

And probably mangle it spectacularly.

Fletcher, la última vez que intentaste usar una expresión nueva en español le dijiste a mi madre que estabas embarazado de vergüenza.

Fletcher, the last time you tried to use a new expression in Spanish you told my mother you were pregnant with embarrassment.

Así que, sí, lo esperamos con mucho interés.

So yes, we are looking forward to it with great interest.

And on that deeply encouraging note, we'll leave it there for today.

This is a topic we are going to have to keep coming back to, because the story is moving faster than any single episode can track.

Thanks for listening.